WTXS51 PGTW 081500 WARNING ATCG MIL 04S SIO 170208130245 2017020812 04S CARLOS 009 01 215 06 SATL 060 T000 225S 0525E 040 R034 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD T012 237S 0525E 045 R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 055 SW QD 065 NW QD T024 249S 0535E 055 R050 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 025 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 100 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD T036 261S 0549E 060 R050 060 NE QD 045 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 120 SE QD 060 SW QD 065 NW QD T048 274S 0571E 055 R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 130 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD T072 286S 0600E 045 R034 135 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 085 NW QD T096 293S 0607E 040 R034 085 NE QD 170 SE QD 155 SW QD 095 NW QD T120 298S 0602E 030 AMP 096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER 120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 009 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 081200Z --- NEAR 22.5S 52.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.5S 52.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 23.7S 52.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 24.9S 53.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 26.1S 54.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 27.4S 57.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 28.6S 60.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 02 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 29.3S 60.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 29.8S 60.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 081500Z POSITION NEAR 22.8S 52.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (CARLOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 197 NM SOUTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z AND 091500Z. // 0417020218 137S 561E 25 0417020300 135S 556E 25 0417020306 137S 553E 25 0417020312 141S 555E 30 0417020318 147S 563E 30 0417020400 153S 568E 30 0417020406 159S 568E 30 0417020412 167S 565E 35 0417020418 171S 565E 35 0417020500 173S 566E 35 0417020506 174S 568E 35 0417020512 175S 570E 45 0417020518 176S 574E 55 0417020518 176S 574E 55 0417020600 177S 576E 55 0417020600 177S 576E 55 0417020606 178S 575E 55 0417020606 178S 575E 55 0417020612 181S 572E 55 0417020612 181S 572E 55 0417020618 185S 570E 50 0417020618 185S 570E 50 0417020700 190S 563E 45 0417020706 195S 553E 45 0417020712 200S 544E 45 0417020718 206S 538E 45 0417020800 212S 533E 40 0417020806 220S 529E 40 0417020812 225S 525E 40 NNNN