WTPS51 PGTW 010900 WARNING ATCG MIL 06P SWP 160101071905 2016010106 06P ULA 005 01 235 12 SATL 030 T000 174S 1714W 090 R064 005 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 005 NW QD R050 025 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 125 SE QD 135 SW QD 050 NW QD T012 183S 1737W 095 R064 020 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 145 SE QD 140 SW QD 065 NW QD T024 190S 1760W 095 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 150 SE QD 140 SW QD 080 NW QD T036 197S 1775W 090 R064 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 145 SE QD 130 SW QD 085 NW QD T048 206S 1786W 080 R064 015 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 055 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 115 SE QD 120 SW QD 080 NW QD T072 222S 1798W 050 R034 065 NE QD 085 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD T096 233S 1796E 030 AMP 072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER 096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 005 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 010600Z --- NEAR 17.4S 171.4W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.4S 171.4W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 18.3S 173.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 19.0S 176.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 19.7S 177.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 20.6S 178.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 22.2S 179.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 23.3S 179.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 010900Z POSITION NEAR 17.6S 172.0W. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (ULA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CURRENT POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON LOW REFLECTIVITY BANDING SEEN IN A 010623Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE AND IS SUPPORTED BY AGENCY SATELLITE FIXES. THE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS AN UNORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH THE BULK OF CONVECTION NOW LOCATE ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD AT 90 KNOTS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MOSTLY FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND STRONG DIVERGENCE; HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS STRUGGLING AS SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR TO THE SOUTH IS APPLYING PRESSURE AGAINST THE SYSTEM AND ELONGATING THE MOISTURE FIELD. THIS IS EVIDENT IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP. TC ULA CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. GIVEN THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT, THE CYCLONE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS FURTHER WESTWARD; HOWEVER, VWS WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO INCREASE AND THE SYSTEM WILL TURN POLEWARD INTO COLDER WATER. THESE FACTORS WILL START A WEAKENING TREND AND LEAD TO FULL DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO TIGHTER AGREEMENT ON THE AFOREMENTIONED TRACK SCENARIO WHICH LEADS TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z AND 020900Z.// 0615122900 83S1747W 20 0615122906 83S1729W 25 0615122912 88S1711W 30 0615122918 93S1693W 35 0615122921 97S1684W 40 0615123000 108S1671W 45 0615123006 120S1665W 45 0615123012 143S1664W 45 0615123018 151S1671W 50 0615123100 153S1684W 50 0615123106 155S1690W 55 0615123106 155S1690W 55 0615123112 158S1695W 65 0615123112 158S1695W 65 0615123118 161S1699W 90 0615123118 161S1699W 90 0615123118 161S1699W 90 NNNN