WTPS51 PGTW 052100 WARNING ATCG MIL 06P SWP 160105193815 2016010518 06P ULA 014 01 330 04 SATL 030 T000 210S 1771E 045 R034 040 NE QD 065 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD T012 204S 1765E 040 R034 050 NE QD 085 SE QD 095 SW QD 055 NW QD T024 199S 1759E 040 R034 060 NE QD 085 SE QD 095 SW QD 065 NW QD T036 194S 1753E 035 T048 191S 1747E 035 T072 191S 1730E 030 AMP 036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER 048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER 072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 014 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 014 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 051800Z --- NEAR 21.0S 177.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.0S 177.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 20.4S 176.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 19.9S 175.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 19.4S 175.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 19.1S 174.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 19.1S 173.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 052100Z POSITION NEAR 20.8S 176.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (ULA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 189 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WANING CONVECTION OVER AN ELONGATED AND FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC. MICROWAVE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS FURTHER ILLUSTRATES A WEAKENING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE; HOWEVER, THE LLCC IS STILL WELL DEFINED IN A 051807Z SSMIS PASS. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 45 KNOTS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM NFFN, KNES, AND PGTW. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES DISCONNECTED FROM THE MOISTURE BELT TO THE EAST AND THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THE WATER VAPOR LOOP ALSO SHOWS DRY AIR NEARLY SURROUNDING THE SYSTEM. TC 06P CONTINUES TO TRACK EQUATORWARD DUE TO AN EXTENSION OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE BUILDING IN JUST WEST OF THE CYCLONE. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THIS RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE, ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO ADJUST BACK TO A WESTWARD TRAJECTORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN NEARLY UNCHANGED WHICH SUPPORTS A CONTINUED GRADUAL WEAKENING. TC ULA WILL FULLY DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT TURNS SLIGHTLY POLEWARD AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BECOME BETTER ALIGNED SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE, THE RECENT UNEXPECTED EQUATORWARD SHIFT IN STORM MOTION LEADS TO LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z AND 062100Z.// 0615122900 83S1747W 20 0615122906 83S1729W 25 0615122912 88S1711W 30 0615122918 93S1693W 35 0615122921 97S1684W 40 0615123000 108S1671W 45 0615123006 120S1665W 45 0615123012 143S1664W 45 0615123018 151S1671W 50 0615123100 153S1684W 50 0615123106 155S1690W 55 0615123106 155S1690W 55 0615123112 158S1695W 65 0615123112 158S1695W 65 0615123118 161S1699W 90 0615123118 161S1699W 90 0615123118 161S1699W 90 NNNN