WTPS51 PGTW 062100 WARNING ATCG MIL 06P SWP 160106202414 2016010618 06P ULA 016 01 315 04 SATL 045 T000 195S 1756E 040 R034 045 NE QD 055 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD T012 189S 1751E 040 R034 040 NE QD 055 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD T024 184S 1746E 035 T036 181S 1741E 035 T048 181S 1734E 035 T072 190S 1710E 030 AMP 048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER 072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 016 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 015 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 060600Z --- NEAR 20.3S 176.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S 176.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 19.7S 175.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 19.4S 175.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 060900Z POSITION NEAR 20.2S 176.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (ULA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 178 NM SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS SHRUNK AND BECOME MORE SHALLOW, ALBEIT STILL FLARING. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A RAGGED CIRCULATION FEATURE IN ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND PLACED CLOSE TO THE CLUSTER OF 060600Z AGENCY FIXES WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR; HOWEVER, THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL THAT WAS SUSTAINING THE CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED. ADDITIONALLY, A LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS IMPEDING ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. IN THE LOW LEVELS, DRY AIR IS INTRUDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WRAPPING INTO THE CORE. THE CYCLONE IS, HOWEVER, TRACKING ON WARM WATERS THAT WILL HELP SLOW DOWN ITS DECAY. BY TAU 24, TC 06P WILL DISSIPATE DUE TO THE NEGATIVE NET EFFECT OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL DYNAMICS. THERE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY OF REGENERATION BEYOND TAU 24 AS INDICATED BY NUMERIC INTENSITY AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z.// 0615122900 83S1747W 20 0615122906 83S1729W 25 0615122912 88S1711W 30 0615122918 93S1693W 35 0615122921 97S1684W 40 0615123000 108S1671W 45 0615123006 120S1665W 45 0615123012 143S1664W 45 0615123018 151S1671W 50 0615123100 153S1684W 50 0615123106 155S1690W 55 0615123106 155S1690W 55 0615123112 158S1695W 65 0615123112 158S1695W 65 0615123118 161S1699W 90 0615123118 161S1699W 90 0615123118 161S1699W 90 NNNN