WTPS51 PGTW 090900 WARNING ATCG MIL 06P SWP 160109071524 2016010906 06P ULA 021 01 230 06 SATL 010 T000 189S 1729E 090 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 065 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 065 NW QD T012 198S 1719E 095 R064 015 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD T024 209S 1710E 100 R064 015 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 075 SE QD 075 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 105 SE QD 105 SW QD 080 NW QD T036 224S 1705E 095 R064 015 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 075 SE QD 075 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 105 SE QD 105 SW QD 080 NW QD T048 244S 1707E 080 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD T072 293S 1734E 050 R034 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD T096 319S 1777E 030 AMP 072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER 096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 021 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 021 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 090600Z --- NEAR 18.9S 172.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 172.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 19.8S 171.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 20.9S 171.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 22.4S 170.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 24.4S 170.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 29.3S 173.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 31.9S 177.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 090900Z POSITION NEAR 19.1S 172.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 317 NM WEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 090437Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW THAT ULA HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED IN INTENSITY, WITH A 10-NM EYE THAT SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES HAVE INCREASED TO 5.0/5.0 AND THEREFORE THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 90 KNOTS. TC 06P CONTINUES TO TRACK IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), STRONG OUTFLOW ALOFT AND HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 28 CELSIUS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ALLOWING TC 06P TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO 100 KNOTS BY TAU 24. BY TAU 36, TC 06P WILL BE AT THE CREST OF THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND BEGIN TURNING TO THE SOUTH, WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY WEAKENING AS VWS INCREASES AND IT TRACKS OVER COLDER WATERS. BY TAU 72, TC 06P WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER AS IT COMES UNDER THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW AND WILL BE COMPLETELY DISSIPATED OVER WATER BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z AND 100900Z.// 0615122900 83S1747W 20 0615122906 83S1729W 25 0615122912 88S1711W 30 0615122918 93S1693W 35 0615122921 97S1684W 40 0615123000 108S1671W 45 0615123006 120S1665W 45 0615123012 143S1664W 45 0615123018 151S1671W 50 0615123100 153S1684W 50 0615123106 155S1690W 55 0615123106 155S1690W 55 0615123112 158S1695W 65 0615123112 158S1695W 65 0615123118 161S1699W 90 0615123118 161S1699W 90 0615123118 161S1699W 90 0616010100 167S1704W 90 0616010100 167S1704W 90 0616010100 167S1704W 90 0616010106 174S1714W 90 0616010106 174S1714W 90 0616010106 174S1714W 90 0616010112 180S1728W 85 0616010112 180S1728W 85 0616010112 180S1728W 85 0616010118 182S1740W 75 0616010118 182S1740W 75 0616010118 182S1740W 75 0616010200 183S1754W 80 0616010200 183S1754W 80 0616010200 183S1754W 80 0616010206 185S1764W 90 0616010206 185S1764W 90 0616010206 185S1764W 90 0616010212 188S1771W 90 0616010212 188S1771W 90 0616010212 188S1771W 90 0616010218 192S1777W 95 0616010218 192S1777W 95 0616010218 192S1777W 95 0616010300 198S1784W 95 0616010300 198S1784W 95 0616010300 198S1784W 95 0616010306 205S1790W 95 0616010306 205S1790W 95 0616010306 205S1790W 95 0616010312 211S1795W 90 0616010312 211S1795W 90 0616010312 211S1795W 90 0616010318 217S1799E 85 0616010318 217S1799E 85 0616010318 217S1799E 85 0616010400 220S1795E 80 0616010400 220S1795E 80 0616010400 220S1795E 80 0616010406 221S1791E 70 0616010406 221S1791E 70 0616010406 221S1791E 70 0616010412 221S1786E 65 0616010412 221S1786E 65 0616010418 220S1781E 65 0616010418 220S1781E 65 0616010500 219S1779E 60 0616010500 219S1779E 60 0616010506 218S1776E 55 0616010506 218S1776E 55 0616010512 213S1773E 50 0616010518 209S1770E 45 0616010600 205S1766E 40 0616010606 202S1763E 40 0616010612 199S1760E 40 0616010618 196S1757E 40 0616010700 193S1754E 40 0616010706 191S1751E 45 0616010712 189S1748E 50 0616010718 187S1745E 55 0616010718 187S1745E 55 0616010800 185S1744E 55 0616010800 185S1744E 55 0616010806 184S1742E 60 0616010806 184S1742E 60 0616010812 184S1740E 70 0616010812 184S1740E 70 0616010818 184S1737E 80 0616010818 184S1737E 80 0616010818 184S1737E 80 0616010900 185S1734E 85 0616010900 185S1734E 85 0616010900 185S1734E 85 0616010906 189S1729E 90 0616010906 189S1729E 90 0616010906 189S1729E 90 NNNN