WTPS51 PGTW 202100 WARNING ATCG MIL 07P SWP 150120201102 2015012018 07P SEVEN 001 01 140 06 SATL 025 T000 136S 1506W 045 R034 090 NE QD 075 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD T012 145S 1493W 065 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 085 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD T024 153S 1478W 090 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 095 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD T036 169S 1462W 090 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 095 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD T048 192S 1449W 085 R064 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 090 SE QD 065 SW QD 065 NW QD T072 239S 1437W 060 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 075 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD T096 271S 1434W 040 T120 301S 1438W 030 AMP 096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER 120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 201800Z --- NEAR 13.6S 150.6W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S 150.6W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 14.5S 149.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 15.3S 147.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 16.9S 146.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 19.2S 144.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 23.9S 143.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 27.1S 143.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 30.1S 143.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 202100Z POSITION NEAR 13.8S 150.3W. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 241 NM NORTH- NORTHWEST OF PAPEETE, TAHITI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS WELL-DEFINED SYMMETRIC BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) TUCKED BENEATH AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. A 201631Z SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS TIGHTLY CURVED DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM WRAPPING INTO A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 07P IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH 5 TO 10 KNOT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW AIDED BY A POINT SOURCE LOCATED DIRECTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A NEAR-EQUITORIAL RIDGE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS HEDGED HIGHER THAN AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35-40 KNOTS DUE TO THE SYSTEM'S CURRENT STUCTURE AND RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA. TC 07P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE STEERING TRANSITIONS TO A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST THROUGH TAU 48. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 90 KNOTS BY TAU 36 DUE TO LOW VWS AND FAVORABLE SSTS. BY TAU 48 EXPECT TC 07P TO TURN SOUTHWARD AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS VWS INCREASES AND SST DROPS OF DRAMATICALLY. BY TAU 96 THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSITION TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STR TO THE SOUTH PRIOR TO DISSIPATION. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK BASED ON THE TIGHTLY PACKED, ALBEIT LIMITED DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z AND 212100Z.// 0715011912 114S1535W 15 0715011918 116S1529W 20 0715012000 120S1522W 25 0715012006 126S1515W 35 0715012012 131S1510W 40 0715012018 136S1506W 45 NNNN