WTPS51 PGTW 150900 WARNING ATCG MIL 07P SWP 160115075453 2016011506 07P VICTOR 002 01 255 07 SATL 060 T000 145S 1662W 040 R034 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD T012 147S 1665W 055 R050 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 085 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD T024 152S 1667W 070 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD T036 157S 1668W 080 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 115 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD T048 169S 1667W 090 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 100 NW QD T072 195S 1659W 085 R064 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 100 NW QD T096 210S 1651W 075 T120 213S 1647W 065 AMP SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR) WARNING NR 002 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 150600Z --- NEAR 14.5S 166.2W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S 166.2W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 14.7S 166.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 15.2S 166.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 15.7S 166.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 16.9S 166.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 19.5S 165.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 21.0S 165.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 21.3S 164.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 150900Z POSITION NEAR 14.5S 166.3W. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 262 NM EAST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 150517Z CORIOLIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING NEARLY WRAPPING COMPLETELY AROUND THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE BROAD LLCC IN THE ABOVE IMAGERY WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 40 KNOTS BASED ON THE IMPROVED OVERALL STRUCTURE AND IS SUPPORTED BY A T2.5 (35 KNOT) DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM PGTW AND KNES AND A T3.0 (45 KNOT) DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PHFO. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS STR WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE TOP OF THE LLCC, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) NEAR 30 DEG CELSIUS AND (SSTS) AND VERY HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) VALUES. THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SLOWLY POLEWARD, REACHING PEAK INTENSITY AT TAU 72. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TC 07P WILL BEGIN A SLOW WEAKENING TREND AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING SSTS AND OHC. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A GENERALLY SOUTHERLY TRACK THROUGH TAU 36 AND THEN A PRONOUNCED SPREADING BEYOND TAU 36. NAVGEM AND GFDN TAKE A WEAKER SYSTEM FURTHER WESTWARD BEFORE TURNING SHARPLY SOUTHEASTWARD WITH A STR BUILDING IN SOUTH OF THE CYCLONE CREATING QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT BY TAU 120. AVNO AND HWRF INDICATE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK IN THE INITIAL TAUS BEFORE RAPIDLY MOVING THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST AFTER TAU 72. DUE TO POOR AGREEMENT IN THE DYNAMIC MODEL FIELDS, THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z AND 160900Z.// 0716011318 121S1651W 25 0716011400 126S1649W 25 0716011406 131S1648W 25 0716011412 136S1649W 30 0716011418 140S1652W 35 0716011500 143S1655W 40 0716011506 145S1662W 40 NNNN