WTPS51 PGTW 222100 WARNING ATCG MIL 07P SWP 160122191656 2016012218 07P VICTOR 017 01 225 10 SATL 030 T000 229S 1761W 030 T012 246S 1767W 030 AMP 000HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER 012HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR) WARNING NR 017 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR) WARNING NR 017 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 221800Z --- NEAR 22.9S 176.1W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 22.9S 176.1W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 24.6S 176.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 230300Z POSITION NEAR 22.0S 71.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CORENTIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 866 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 222310Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH CONVECTION COMPLETELY SURROUNDING THE CENTER. PGTW AND KNES DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES YIELDED T-NUMBERS OF 4.5 AND SUPPORT THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS. TC CORENTIN REMAINS IN AN AREA FAVORABLE FOR SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION WITH LOW (5 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND HIGH (28 DEG C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS). TC CORENTIN IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST. BY TAU 36, TC CORENTIN WILL BEGIN MOVING ON A SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK AS THE STEERING RIDGE REORIENTS TO THE NORTHWEST. BY TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL SLOW, BECOMING NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY BEFORE TURNING SHARPLY SOUTHWARD. AFTER TAU 72, THE CYCLONE WILL ACCELERATE IN RESPONSE TO A SECONDARY RIDGE RAPIDLY REPOSITIONING SOUTH THEN SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 08S IS EXPECTED TO REACH PEAK INTENSITY BY TAU 12 THEN BEGIN A SLOW WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED VWS AND DECREASING SSTS. BY TAU 120, TC CORENTIN WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT INTERACTS WITH A MID-LATITUDE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN TAUS 72-120. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS SUPPORTED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TAU 48 AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE REMAINING TAUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z AND 240300Z.// 0716011318 121S1651W 25 0716011400 126S1649W 25 0716011406 131S1648W 25 0716011412 136S1649W 30 0716011418 140S1652W 35 0716011500 143S1655W 40 0716011506 145S1658W 45 0716011512 144S1660W 55 0716011512 144S1660W 55 0716011518 143S1661W 65 0716011518 143S1661W 65 0716011600 145S1661W 70 0716011600 145S1661W 70 0716011606 147S1662W 75 0716011606 147S1662W 75 0716011606 147S1662W 75 0716011612 149S1663W 75 0716011612 149S1663W 75 0716011612 149S1663W 75 0716011618 151S1664W 75 0716011618 151S1664W 75 0716011618 151S1664W 75 0716011700 155S1664W 70 0716011700 155S1664W 70 0716011700 155S1664W 70 0716011706 161S1664W 70 0716011706 161S1664W 70 0716011706 161S1664W 70 0716011712 168S1664W 70 0716011712 168S1664W 70 0716011712 168S1664W 70 0716011718 174S1664W 65 0716011718 174S1664W 65 0716011800 182S1663W 65 0716011800 182S1663W 65 0716011806 191S1661W 75 0716011806 191S1661W 75 0716011806 191S1661W 75 0716011812 197S1661W 80 0716011812 197S1661W 80 0716011812 197S1661W 80 0716011818 201S1662W 90 0716011818 201S1662W 90 0716011818 201S1662W 90 0716011900 205S1666W 85 0716011900 205S1666W 85 0716011900 205S1666W 85 0716011906 208S1671W 80 0716011906 208S1671W 80 0716011906 208S1671W 80 0716011912 211S1676W 75 0716011912 211S1676W 75 0716011912 211S1676W 75 0716011918 213S1680W 65 0716011918 213S1680W 65 0716011918 213S1680W 65 0716012000 215S1685W 65 0716012000 215S1685W 65 0716012000 215S1685W 65 0716012006 215S1689W 65 0716012006 215S1689W 65 0716012012 215S1692W 65 0716012012 215S1692W 65 0716012018 215S1695W 65 0716012018 215S1695W 65 0716012100 215S1702W 65 0716012100 215S1702W 65 0716012106 215S1710W 65 0716012106 215S1710W 65 0716012112 215S1718W 60 0716012112 215S1718W 60 0716012118 216S1725W 50 0716012200 218S1733W 45 0716012206 220S1743W 40 0716012212 222S1754W 35 0716012218 229S1761W 30 NNNN