WTXS51 PGTW 240300 WARNING ATCG MIL 08S SIO 160124013253 2016012400 08S CORENTIN 006 01 130 13 SATL 060 T000 254S 0740E 055 R050 065 NE QD 085 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 240 SE QD 125 SW QD 125 NW QD T012 265S 0757E 045 R034 180 NE QD 200 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD T024 270S 0769E 035 T036 270S 0775E 030 AMP 024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER 036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CORENTIN) WARNING NR 006 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CORENTIN) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 240000Z --- NEAR 25.4S 74.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 25.4S 74.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 26.5S 75.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 27.0S 76.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 27.0S 77.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 240300Z POSITION NEAR 25.7S 74.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CORENTIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 976 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPID DECREASE IN CENTRAL CONVECTION AND A LESS-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 232258Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS WEAK CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A VERY WEAK MICROWAVE CIRCULATION FEATURE, GIVING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE CURRENT POSITION. INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE STEADILY FALLEN OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND ARE CURRENTLY T3.5 FROM BOTH PGTW AND KNES, SUPPORTING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KTS. TC CORENTIN HAS MOVED INTO AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) BUT INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). WHILE THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A STRONG EASTERLY OUTFLOW CHANNEL, OVERALL IT IS SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING. TC CORENTIN CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST. BY TAU 12, TC CORENTIN WILL SLOW, BECOMING NEARLY QUASI- STATIONARY IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT IN THE COL AREA BETWEEN DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGES TO THE EAST AND SOUTH- SOUTHWEST. OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS, TC CORENTIN WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AND VWS RESULTING IN DISSIPATION BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24, BUT UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AFTERWARD DUE TO THE LACK OF A DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z AND 250300Z.// 0816011918 138S 782E 20 0816012000 139S 776E 15 0816012006 140S 769E 25 0816012012 142S 762E 30 0816012018 145S 757E 30 0816012100 149S 752E 30 0816012106 154S 745E 30 0816012112 159S 736E 45 0816012118 169S 734E 45 0816012200 178S 732E 55 0816012200 178S 732E 55 0816012206 185S 724E 65 0816012206 185S 724E 65 0816012212 199S 719E 65 0816012212 199S 719E 65 0816012218 207S 716E 70 0816012218 207S 716E 70 0816012300 215S 716E 75 0816012300 215S 716E 75 0816012300 215S 716E 75 0816012306 229S 724E 75 0816012306 229S 724E 75 0816012306 229S 724E 75 0816012312 239S 726E 75 0816012312 239S 726E 75 0816012312 239S 726E 75 0816012318 245S 729E 55 0816012318 245S 729E 55 0816012400 254S 740E 55 0816012400 254S 740E 55 NNNN