WTPS51 PGTW 210300 WARNING ATCG MIL 11P SWP 160221013652 2016022100 11P WINSTON 032 01 265 11 SATL 010 T000 175S 1747E 115 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 090 SE QD 110 SW QD 100 NW QD T012 175S 1736E 110 R064 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 070 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 155 SE QD 145 SW QD 105 NW QD T024 178S 1729E 105 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 150 SE QD 140 SW QD 110 NW QD T036 189S 1732E 100 R064 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 145 SE QD 125 SW QD 110 NW QD T048 205S 1743E 110 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 085 SE QD 085 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 145 SE QD 130 SW QD 115 NW QD T072 235S 1762E 080 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 130 SE QD 130 SW QD 120 NW QD T096 252S 1756E 055 T120 275S 1709E 045 AMP SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 032 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 032 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 210000Z --- NEAR 17.5S 174.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S 174.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 17.5S 173.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 17.8S 172.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 18.9S 173.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 20.5S 174.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 23.5S 176.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 25.2S 175.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 27.5S 170.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 210300Z POSITION NEAR 17.5S 174.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 214 NM WEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CLOUD COVERED EYE FEATURE WHICH HAS MAINTAINED ITSELF OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 212248Z GPM 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES A VERY COMPACT CENTER, WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING EVIDENT ON THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST QUADRANTS OF THE EYE, SUPPORTING THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. WHILE THE EYE HAS REFORMED, THE FACT THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS NOT COMPLETELY SURROUNDED THE CENTER IS INDICATIVE OF AN OVERALL WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM, AND IS IN AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.0 (115 KNOTS) FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. ANALYSIS OF THE UPPER-LEVELS INDICATES THAT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS INCREASED SOMEWHAT AND IS NOW AROUND 20-25 KNOTS EASTERLY SHEAR VECTOR. THE VWS IS BEING INDUCED BY A POINT SOURCE, WHICH WAS ON TOP OF THE SYSTEM YESTERDAY, MOVING OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. THIS IS ALSO DISRUPTING THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN, HELPING TO FURTHER THE WEAKENING TREND. TC WINSTON CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. TC WINSTON WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS OVERALL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN STATIC. TC WINSTON IS FORECAST TO TURN SOUTHWARD BY TAU 24 AS THE STEERING STR RETROGRADES WESTWARD ALLOWING A SECONDARY RIDGE TO BUILD IN FROM THE EAST. AFTER MAKING THIS TURN, TC WINSTON WILL TAP INTO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, BRIEFLY ENHANCING UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, ALLOWING FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION BEFORE THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VWS. AFTER TAU 72, AS THE SYSTEM ACCELERATES SOUTHWARD, IT WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS AS MODERATE TO HIGH VWS AND DECREASING SSTS COMBINE TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE STORM. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST AFTER TAU 96, AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES SHALLOWER AND NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH, THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM SHIFTS TO A LOW TO MID-LEVEL STR LOCATED TO THE SOUTH, FORCING THE SYSTEM WESTWARD ONCE AGAIN. THE SPREAD OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND IS ONLY IN MODERATE AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD; THEREFORE THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE OVERALL JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z, 211500Z, 212100Z AND 220300Z. 1116020818 111S1680E 20 1116020900 117S1686E 20 1116020906 123S1689E 20 1116020912 130S1692E 20 1116020918 136S1695E 20 1116021000 141S1700E 25 1116021006 145S1704E 30 1116021012 149S1707E 35 1116021018 153S1709E 40 1116021100 157S1711E 40 1116021106 161S1714E 45 1116021112 167S1716E 55 1116021112 167S1716E 55 1116021118 174S1716E 55 1116021118 174S1716E 55 1116021200 180S1716E 65 1116021200 180S1716E 65 1116021206 187S1716E 95 1116021206 187S1716E 95 1116021206 187S1716E 95 1116021212 197S1715E 105 1116021212 197S1715E 105 1116021212 197S1715E 105 1116021218 208S1715E 110 1116021218 208S1715E 110 1116021218 208S1715E 110 1116021300 222S1718E 105 1116021300 222S1718E 105 1116021300 222S1718E 105 1116021306 233S1722E 100 1116021306 233S1722E 100 1116021306 233S1722E 100 1116021312 242S1728E 95 1116021312 242S1728E 95 1116021312 242S1728E 95 1116021318 247S1736E 90 1116021318 247S1736E 90 1116021318 247S1736E 90 1116021400 253S1749E 75 1116021400 253S1749E 75 1116021400 253S1749E 75 1116021406 254S1765E 70 1116021406 254S1765E 70 1116021406 254S1765E 70 1116021412 248S1776E 65 1116021412 248S1776E 65 1116021418 241S1788E 65 1116021418 241S1788E 65 1116021500 230S1796E 60 1116021500 230S1796E 60 1116021506 218S1795W 55 1116021506 218S1795W 55 1116021512 206S1781W 50 1116021518 198S1767W 40 1116021600 190S1755W 45 1116021606 185S1745W 55 1116021606 185S1745W 55 1116021612 179S1736W 65 1116021612 179S1736W 65 1116021618 175S1724W 75 1116021618 175S1724W 75 1116021618 175S1724W 75 1116021700 174S1717W 90 1116021700 174S1717W 90 1116021700 174S1717W 90 1116021706 173S1713W 90 1116021706 173S1713W 90 1116021706 173S1713W 90 1116021712 172S1710W 90 1116021712 172S1710W 90 1116021712 172S1710W 90 1116021718 171S1709W 105 1116021718 171S1709W 105 1116021718 171S1709W 105 1116021800 171S1711W 105 1116021800 171S1711W 105 1116021800 171S1711W 105 1116021806 171S1716W 95 1116021806 171S1716W 95 1116021806 171S1716W 95 1116021812 171S1723W 100 1116021812 171S1723W 100 1116021812 171S1723W 100 1116021818 174S1733W 105 1116021818 174S1733W 105 1116021818 174S1733W 105 1116021900 175S1746W 110 1116021900 175S1746W 110 1116021900 175S1746W 110 1116021906 175S1759W 125 1116021906 175S1759W 125 1116021906 175S1759W 125 1116021912 173S1775W 135 1116021912 173S1775W 135 1116021912 173S1775W 135 1116021918 172S1789W 145 1116021918 172S1789W 145 1116021918 172S1789W 145 1116022000 172S1799W 150 1116022000 172S1799W 150 1116022000 172S1799W 150 1116022006 174S1787E 155 1116022006 174S1787E 155 1116022006 174S1787E 155 1116022012 174S1770E 140 1116022012 174S1770E 140 1116022012 174S1770E 140 1116022018 174S1758E 130 1116022018 174S1758E 130 1116022018 174S1758E 130 1116022100 175S1747E 115 1116022100 175S1747E 115 1116022100 175S1747E 115 NNNN