WTPS51 PGTW 220300 WARNING ATCG MIL 11P SWP 160222013921 2016022200 11P WINSTON 036 01 240 02 SATL 010 T000 178S 1725E 095 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 060 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 115 SE QD 140 SW QD 100 NW QD T012 184S 1724E 100 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 075 SE QD 075 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 140 SE QD 140 SW QD 095 NW QD T024 195S 1730E 100 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 135 SE QD 130 SW QD 105 NW QD T036 208S 1738E 090 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 115 NW QD T048 222S 1744E 080 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 075 SE QD 075 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 130 SE QD 130 SW QD 110 NW QD T072 247S 1730E 055 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 130 SE QD 150 SW QD 110 NW QD T096 265S 1677E 045 T120 276S 1640E 040 AMP 096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 120HR EXTRATROPICAL SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 036 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 036 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 220000Z --- NEAR 17.8S 172.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S 172.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 18.4S 172.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 19.5S 173.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 20.8S 173.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 22.2S 174.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 24.7S 173.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 13 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 26.5S 167.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 27.6S 164.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 220300Z POSITION NEAR 18.0S 172.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 337 NM WEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A NOTED IMPROVEMENT IN THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF TC WINSTON OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A CLOUD-FILLED BUT DISTINCT EYE HAS REAPPEARED, AND THE OVERALL OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED BASED ON THE PRESENTATION IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A 212224Z AMSU-B 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWED A WELL DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WITH DEEP CONVECTION MOSTLY CONCENTRATED ON THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM, SUPPORTING THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS REMAINED STEADY AT 95 KNOTS BASED ON THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE AND CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0 FROM BOTH PGTW AND KNES. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT HAS IMPROVED, WITH A POINT SOURCE REDEVELOPING ON TOP OF TC WINSTON, REDUCING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO 10-15 KNOTS AND PROVIDING GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ONCE AGAIN. THE SYSTEM IS ALSO TRACKING OVER A POOL OF 31 CELSIUS WATER, SUPPORTING A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TC WINSTON HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AS THE STEERING MECHANISM IS SHIFTING FROM THE DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST TO A SECOND RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, TC WINSTON WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD, BEFORE TURNING MORE SOUTHEASTWARD BY TAU 24 AS THE SECONDARY RIDGE BUILDS IN. VWS WILL INCREASE AND SSTS WILL BEGIN TO DROP AFTER TAU 24 LEADING TO A RELATIVELY RAPID WEAKENING TREND ESPECIALLY AFTER TAU 48. AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS TO TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY AROUND TAU 72, A LOW TO MID-LEVEL STR WILL DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH, RESULTING IN A WESTWARD TRACK INTO THE VICINITY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. BY TAU 96, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND BEGIN SUB- TROPICAL TRANSITION WITH A COMPLETE TRANSITION EXPECTED BY TAU 120 AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE REMAINING TAUS LEADING TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z, 221500Z, 222100Z AND 230300Z.// 1116020818 111S1680E 20 1116020900 117S1686E 20 1116020906 123S1689E 20 1116020912 130S1692E 20 1116020918 136S1695E 20 1116021000 141S1700E 25 1116021006 145S1704E 30 1116021012 149S1707E 35 1116021018 153S1709E 40 1116021100 157S1711E 40 1116021106 161S1714E 45 1116021112 167S1716E 55 1116021112 167S1716E 55 1116021118 174S1716E 55 1116021118 174S1716E 55 1116021200 180S1716E 65 1116021200 180S1716E 65 1116021206 187S1716E 95 1116021206 187S1716E 95 1116021206 187S1716E 95 1116021212 197S1715E 105 1116021212 197S1715E 105 1116021212 197S1715E 105 1116021218 208S1715E 110 1116021218 208S1715E 110 1116021218 208S1715E 110 1116021300 222S1718E 105 1116021300 222S1718E 105 1116021300 222S1718E 105 1116021306 233S1722E 100 1116021306 233S1722E 100 1116021306 233S1722E 100 1116021312 242S1728E 95 1116021312 242S1728E 95 1116021312 242S1728E 95 1116021318 247S1736E 90 1116021318 247S1736E 90 1116021318 247S1736E 90 1116021400 253S1749E 75 1116021400 253S1749E 75 1116021400 253S1749E 75 1116021406 254S1765E 70 1116021406 254S1765E 70 1116021406 254S1765E 70 1116021412 248S1776E 65 1116021412 248S1776E 65 1116021418 241S1788E 65 1116021418 241S1788E 65 1116021500 230S1796E 60 1116021500 230S1796E 60 1116021506 218S1795W 55 1116021506 218S1795W 55 1116021512 206S1781W 50 1116021518 198S1767W 40 1116021600 190S1755W 45 1116021606 185S1745W 55 1116021606 185S1745W 55 1116021612 179S1736W 65 1116021612 179S1736W 65 1116021618 175S1724W 75 1116021618 175S1724W 75 1116021618 175S1724W 75 1116021700 174S1717W 90 1116021700 174S1717W 90 1116021700 174S1717W 90 1116021706 173S1713W 90 1116021706 173S1713W 90 1116021706 173S1713W 90 1116021712 172S1710W 90 1116021712 172S1710W 90 1116021712 172S1710W 90 1116021718 171S1709W 105 1116021718 171S1709W 105 1116021718 171S1709W 105 1116021800 171S1711W 105 1116021800 171S1711W 105 1116021800 171S1711W 105 1116021806 171S1716W 95 1116021806 171S1716W 95 1116021806 171S1716W 95 1116021812 171S1723W 100 1116021812 171S1723W 100 1116021812 171S1723W 100 1116021818 174S1733W 105 1116021818 174S1733W 105 1116021818 174S1733W 105 1116021900 175S1746W 110 1116021900 175S1746W 110 1116021900 175S1746W 110 1116021906 175S1759W 125 1116021906 175S1759W 125 1116021906 175S1759W 125 1116021912 173S1775W 135 1116021912 173S1775W 135 1116021912 173S1775W 135 1116021918 172S1789W 145 1116021918 172S1789W 145 1116021918 172S1789W 145 1116022000 172S1799W 150 1116022000 172S1799W 150 1116022000 172S1799W 150 1116022006 174S1787E 155 1116022006 174S1787E 155 1116022006 174S1787E 155 1116022012 174S1770E 140 1116022012 174S1770E 140 1116022012 174S1770E 140 1116022018 174S1758E 130 1116022018 174S1758E 130 1116022018 174S1758E 130 1116022100 174S1747E 120 1116022100 174S1747E 120 1116022100 174S1747E 120 1116022106 175S1739E 125 1116022106 175S1739E 125 1116022106 175S1739E 125 1116022112 176S1732E 115 1116022112 176S1732E 115 1116022112 176S1732E 115 1116022118 177S1727E 95 1116022118 177S1727E 95 1116022118 177S1727E 95 1116022200 178S1725E 95 1116022200 178S1725E 95 1116022200 178S1725E 95 NNNN