WTPS51 PGTW 221500 WARNING ATCG MIL 11P SWP 160222130815 2016022212 11P WINSTON 038 01 180 03 SATL 020 T000 182S 1723E 090 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 060 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 160 SE QD 160 SW QD 095 NW QD T012 192S 1728E 090 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 075 SE QD 075 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 140 SE QD 140 SW QD 095 NW QD T024 206S 1738E 085 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 135 SE QD 130 SW QD 105 NW QD T036 222S 1744E 080 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 115 NW QD T048 235S 1741E 070 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 075 SE QD 075 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 130 SE QD 130 SW QD 110 NW QD T072 257S 1705E 050 R034 110 NE QD 130 SE QD 135 SW QD 110 NW QD T096 283S 1644E 045 AMP 072HR BECOMING SUBTROPICAL 096HR SUBTROPICAL SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 038 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 038 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 221200Z --- NEAR 18.2S 172.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S 172.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 19.2S 172.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 20.6S 173.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 22.2S 174.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 23.5S 174.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 25.7S 170.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING SUBTROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 15 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 28.3S 164.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY SUBTROPICAL --- REMARKS: 221500Z POSITION NEAR 18.5S 172.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 348 NM WEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAGGED 20NM EYE THAT HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN STRUCTURE OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS GIVING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED TO BE 90 KNOTS WHICH IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES REPORTING CURRENT INTENSITIES OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WARM (29 CELSIUS), AND A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL EXISTS WHICH IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY. HOWEVER, THE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING DUE TO CONVERGENCE OBSERVED NORTH OF THE CYCLONE, EVIDENT ON RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE CIMSS MICROWAVE TPW LOOP ALSO INDICATES A BAND OF DRY AIR CURRENTLY BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE CYCLONE HINDERING FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. WINSTON SHOULD MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS, BEFORE WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO THE DISRUPTION OF THE EQUATORWARD EXHAUST CHANNEL AND INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE WEST. THE CURRENT MOVEMENT IS QUASI-STATIONARY AS THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM IS SHIFTING FROM A RIDGE RETROGRADING WESTWARD TO A RIDGE BUILDING IN TO THE EAST. TC WINSTON WILL SOON ACCELERATE ALONG A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK, GUIDED BY THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE EAST. BY TAU 72, AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS, THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM WILL SHIFT TO A LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WHICH WILL STEER TC WINSTON WESTWARD UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND SSTS DROPPING BELOW 26 CELSIUS WILL BEGIN SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION INTO A COLD CORE SYSTEM. TC WINSTON IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT PROVIDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z, 230300Z, 230900Z AND 231500Z.// 1116020818 111S1680E 20 1116020900 117S1686E 20 1116020906 123S1689E 20 1116020912 130S1692E 20 1116020918 136S1695E 20 1116021000 141S1700E 25 1116021006 145S1704E 30 1116021012 149S1707E 35 1116021018 153S1709E 40 1116021100 157S1711E 40 1116021106 161S1714E 45 1116021112 167S1716E 55 1116021112 167S1716E 55 1116021118 174S1716E 55 1116021118 174S1716E 55 1116021200 180S1716E 65 1116021200 180S1716E 65 1116021206 187S1716E 95 1116021206 187S1716E 95 1116021206 187S1716E 95 1116021212 197S1715E 105 1116021212 197S1715E 105 1116021212 197S1715E 105 1116021218 208S1715E 110 1116021218 208S1715E 110 1116021218 208S1715E 110 1116021300 222S1718E 105 1116021300 222S1718E 105 1116021300 222S1718E 105 1116021306 233S1722E 100 1116021306 233S1722E 100 1116021306 233S1722E 100 1116021312 242S1728E 95 1116021312 242S1728E 95 1116021312 242S1728E 95 1116021318 247S1736E 90 1116021318 247S1736E 90 1116021318 247S1736E 90 1116021400 253S1749E 75 1116021400 253S1749E 75 1116021400 253S1749E 75 1116021406 254S1765E 70 1116021406 254S1765E 70 1116021406 254S1765E 70 1116021412 248S1776E 65 1116021412 248S1776E 65 1116021418 241S1788E 65 1116021418 241S1788E 65 1116021500 230S1796E 60 1116021500 230S1796E 60 1116021506 218S1795W 55 1116021506 218S1795W 55 1116021512 206S1781W 50 1116021518 198S1767W 40 1116021600 190S1755W 45 1116021606 185S1745W 55 1116021606 185S1745W 55 1116021612 179S1736W 65 1116021612 179S1736W 65 1116021618 175S1724W 75 1116021618 175S1724W 75 1116021618 175S1724W 75 1116021700 174S1717W 90 1116021700 174S1717W 90 1116021700 174S1717W 90 1116021706 173S1713W 90 1116021706 173S1713W 90 1116021706 173S1713W 90 1116021712 172S1710W 90 1116021712 172S1710W 90 1116021712 172S1710W 90 1116021718 171S1709W 105 1116021718 171S1709W 105 1116021718 171S1709W 105 1116021800 171S1711W 105 1116021800 171S1711W 105 1116021800 171S1711W 105 1116021806 171S1716W 95 1116021806 171S1716W 95 1116021806 171S1716W 95 1116021812 171S1723W 100 1116021812 171S1723W 100 1116021812 171S1723W 100 1116021818 174S1733W 105 1116021818 174S1733W 105 1116021818 174S1733W 105 1116021900 175S1746W 110 1116021900 175S1746W 110 1116021900 175S1746W 110 1116021906 175S1759W 125 1116021906 175S1759W 125 1116021906 175S1759W 125 1116021912 173S1775W 135 1116021912 173S1775W 135 1116021912 173S1775W 135 1116021918 172S1789W 145 1116021918 172S1789W 145 1116021918 172S1789W 145 1116022000 172S1799W 150 1116022000 172S1799W 150 1116022000 172S1799W 150 1116022006 174S1787E 155 1116022006 174S1787E 155 1116022006 174S1787E 155 1116022012 174S1770E 140 1116022012 174S1770E 140 1116022012 174S1770E 140 1116022018 174S1758E 130 1116022018 174S1758E 130 1116022018 174S1758E 130 1116022100 174S1747E 120 1116022100 174S1747E 120 1116022100 174S1747E 120 1116022106 175S1739E 125 1116022106 175S1739E 125 1116022106 175S1739E 125 1116022112 176S1732E 115 1116022112 176S1732E 115 1116022112 176S1732E 115 1116022118 177S1727E 95 1116022118 177S1727E 95 1116022118 177S1727E 95 1116022200 178S1725E 95 1116022200 178S1725E 95 1116022200 178S1725E 95 1116022206 179S1723E 90 1116022206 179S1723E 90 1116022206 179S1723E 90 1116022212 182S1723E 90 1116022212 182S1723E 90 1116022212 182S1723E 90 NNNN