WTPS51 PGTW 242100 WARNING ATCG MIL 11P SWP 160224192456 2016022418 11P WINSTON 047 01 225 11 SATL 060 T000 252S 1728E 040 R034 135 NE QD 210 SE QD 145 SW QD 100 NW QD T012 265S 1698E 040 R034 160 NE QD 240 SE QD 220 SW QD 120 NW QD AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 012HR EXTRATROPICAL SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 047 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 047 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 241800Z --- NEAR 25.2S 172.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING SUBTROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 25.2S 172.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 26.5S 169.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY SUBTROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 242100Z POSITION NEAR 25.5S 172.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 367 NM NORTHEAST OF KINGSTON IS., HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED, BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH SHALLOW CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH. A 241514Z SSMI 89 GHZ IMAGE REVEALS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE BROAD LLCC, WHICH PROVIDES GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER, ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS, THAN DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WOULD SUGGEST DUE TO THE HIGHLY SHEARED NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. A ASCAT PASS FROM APPROXIMATELY 10 HOURS AGO ALSO INDICATED A BROAD REGION OF 30-40 KNOT WINDS AROUND THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC WINSTON IS TRACKING THROUGH A HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE REGION WITH STRONG (30 TO 40 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND LOW SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 26 CELSIUS. TC WINSTON HAS WEAKENED TO THE POINT THAT THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM IS NOW THE RELATIVELY SHALLOW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH, STEERING THE SYSTEM WESTWARD. TC WINSTON IS ALREADY EXHIBITING SIGNS OF BEING SUBTROPICAL, WITH THE MID-LEVEL WARM CORE WEAKENING AND THE WIND FIELD EXPANDING. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 12, BUT IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN GALE-FORCE WINDS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 18 FEET.// 1116020818 111S1680E 20 1116020900 117S1686E 20 1116020906 123S1689E 20 1116020912 130S1692E 20 1116020918 136S1695E 20 1116021000 141S1700E 25 1116021006 145S1704E 30 1116021012 149S1707E 35 1116021018 153S1709E 40 1116021100 157S1711E 40 1116021106 161S1714E 45 1116021112 167S1716E 55 1116021112 167S1716E 55 1116021118 174S1716E 55 1116021118 174S1716E 55 1116021200 180S1716E 65 1116021200 180S1716E 65 1116021206 187S1716E 95 1116021206 187S1716E 95 1116021206 187S1716E 95 1116021212 197S1715E 105 1116021212 197S1715E 105 1116021212 197S1715E 105 1116021218 208S1715E 110 1116021218 208S1715E 110 1116021218 208S1715E 110 1116021300 222S1718E 105 1116021300 222S1718E 105 1116021300 222S1718E 105 1116021306 233S1722E 100 1116021306 233S1722E 100 1116021306 233S1722E 100 1116021312 242S1728E 95 1116021312 242S1728E 95 1116021312 242S1728E 95 1116021318 247S1736E 90 1116021318 247S1736E 90 1116021318 247S1736E 90 1116021400 253S1749E 75 1116021400 253S1749E 75 1116021400 253S1749E 75 1116021406 254S1765E 70 1116021406 254S1765E 70 1116021406 254S1765E 70 1116021412 248S1776E 65 1116021412 248S1776E 65 1116021418 241S1788E 65 1116021418 241S1788E 65 1116021500 230S1796E 60 1116021500 230S1796E 60 1116021506 218S1795W 55 1116021506 218S1795W 55 1116021512 206S1781W 50 1116021518 198S1767W 40 1116021600 190S1755W 45 1116021606 185S1745W 55 1116021606 185S1745W 55 1116021612 179S1736W 65 1116021612 179S1736W 65 1116021618 175S1724W 75 1116021618 175S1724W 75 1116021618 175S1724W 75 1116021700 174S1717W 90 1116021700 174S1717W 90 1116021700 174S1717W 90 1116021706 173S1713W 90 1116021706 173S1713W 90 1116021706 173S1713W 90 1116021712 172S1710W 90 1116021712 172S1710W 90 1116021712 172S1710W 90 1116021718 171S1709W 105 1116021718 171S1709W 105 1116021718 171S1709W 105 1116021800 171S1711W 105 1116021800 171S1711W 105 1116021800 171S1711W 105 1116021806 171S1716W 95 1116021806 171S1716W 95 1116021806 171S1716W 95 1116021812 171S1723W 100 1116021812 171S1723W 100 1116021812 171S1723W 100 1116021818 174S1733W 105 1116021818 174S1733W 105 1116021818 174S1733W 105 1116021900 175S1746W 110 1116021900 175S1746W 110 1116021900 175S1746W 110 1116021906 175S1759W 125 1116021906 175S1759W 125 1116021906 175S1759W 125 1116021912 173S1775W 135 1116021912 173S1775W 135 1116021912 173S1775W 135 1116021918 172S1789W 145 1116021918 172S1789W 145 1116021918 172S1789W 145 1116022000 172S1799W 150 1116022000 172S1799W 150 1116022000 172S1799W 150 1116022006 174S1787E 155 1116022006 174S1787E 155 1116022006 174S1787E 155 1116022012 174S1770E 140 1116022012 174S1770E 140 1116022012 174S1770E 140 1116022018 174S1758E 130 1116022018 174S1758E 130 1116022018 174S1758E 130 1116022100 174S1747E 120 1116022100 174S1747E 120 1116022100 174S1747E 120 1116022106 175S1739E 125 1116022106 175S1739E 125 1116022106 175S1739E 125 1116022112 176S1732E 115 1116022112 176S1732E 115 1116022112 176S1732E 115 1116022118 177S1727E 95 1116022118 177S1727E 95 1116022118 177S1727E 95 1116022200 178S1725E 95 1116022200 178S1725E 95 1116022200 178S1725E 95 1116022206 179S1723E 90 1116022206 179S1723E 90 1116022206 179S1723E 90 1116022212 182S1723E 90 1116022212 182S1723E 90 1116022212 182S1723E 90 1116022218 186S1725E 85 1116022218 186S1725E 85 1116022218 186S1725E 85 1116022300 192S1729E 85 1116022300 192S1729E 85 1116022300 192S1729E 85 1116022306 199S1733E 75 1116022306 199S1733E 75 1116022306 199S1733E 75 1116022312 207S1738E 70 1116022312 207S1738E 70 1116022312 207S1738E 70 1116022318 216S1743E 55 1116022318 216S1743E 55 1116022400 227S1743E 50 1116022406 236S1742E 50 1116022412 244S1737E 45 1116022418 252S1728E 40 NNNN