WTXS51 PGTW 082100 WARNING ATCG MIL 11S SIO 170308194517 2017030818 11S ELEVEN 001 01 260 05 SATL 060 T000 152S 0701E 035 R034 000 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 000 NW QD T012 153S 0691E 040 R034 035 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW QD 035 NW QD T024 158S 0685E 045 R034 070 NE QD 185 SE QD 130 SW QD 055 NW QD T036 169S 0682E 055 R050 005 NE QD 015 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 210 SE QD 235 SW QD 080 NW QD T048 187S 0671E 060 R050 015 NE QD 040 SE QD 055 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 175 SE QD 195 SW QD 100 NW QD T072 218S 0616E 065 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 045 SE QD 060 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 195 SE QD 210 SW QD 075 NW QD T096 248S 0563E 075 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 170 SE QD 205 SW QD 090 NW QD T120 282S 0545E 085 R064 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 170 SE QD 180 SW QD 095 NW QD AMP SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 001 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 081800Z --- NEAR 15.2S 70.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S 70.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 15.3S 69.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 15.8S 68.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 16.9S 68.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 235 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 18.7S 67.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 21.8S 61.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 14 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 24.8S 56.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 28.2S 54.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 082100Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 69.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 506 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z AND 092100Z. // 1117030600 138S 779E 25 1117030606 142S 771E 25 1117030612 146S 765E 25 1117030618 150S 758E 30 1117030700 156S 748E 30 1117030706 159S 738E 30 1117030712 161S 728E 30 1117030718 160S 721E 30 1117030800 155S 715E 30 1117030806 151S 711E 30 1117030812 151S 706E 30 1117030818 152S 701E 35 NNNN