WTXS51 PGTW 070900 WARNING ATCG MIL 15S SIO 150307064829 2015030706 15S FIFTEEN 005 01 315 03 SATL 020 T000 162S 0410E 030 T012 159S 0412E 025 AMP 000HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER 012HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 005 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 070600Z --- NEAR 16.2S 41.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 41.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 15.9S 41.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 070900Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 41.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME RAGGED AND ALMOST FULLY-EXPOSED AS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED WESTWARD. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS 04 DEGREES NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, A WESTWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS ALSO PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE WAYWARD CONVECTION. TC 15S IS QUASI-STATIONARY IN A COL AREA AMIDST THREE COMPETING STEERING FORCES: A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST, AND ANOTHER STR LEAF TO THE EAST. THE CYCLONE HAS WEAKENED TO BELOW THE JTWC WARNING CRITERIA AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO REGAIN INTENSITY AND MOMENTUM AT LEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 12 FEET. // 1515030312 148S 415E 15 1515030318 143S 414E 20 1515030400 140S 416E 25 1515030406 140S 419E 25 1515030412 143S 421E 30 1515030418 147S 421E 30 1515030500 150S 422E 30 1515030506 154S 423E 30 1515030512 158S 422E 35 1515030518 162S 422E 35 1515030600 165S 421E 35 1515030606 167S 418E 35 1515030612 168S 416E 35 1515030618 167S 414E 35 1515030700 164S 412E 35 1515030706 162S 410E 30 NNNN