WTXS51 PGTW 192100 WARNING ATCG MIL 15S SIO 160319195536 2016031918 15S EMERAUDE 009 01 135 03 SATL 035 T000 108S 0874E 075 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 075 SW QD 065 NW QD T012 111S 0874E 080 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 090 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD T024 117S 0869E 085 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 055 NW QD T036 121S 0859E 085 R064 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 075 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD T048 123S 0847E 085 R064 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD T072 125S 0824E 080 R064 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 090 SE QD 085 SW QD 075 NW QD T096 127S 0815E 080 T120 131S 0811E 085 AMP SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (EMERAUDE) WARNING NR 009 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (EMERAUDE) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 191800Z --- NEAR 10.8S 87.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 10.8S 87.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 11.1S 87.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 11.7S 86.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 12.1S 85.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 12.3S 84.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 12.5S 82.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 02 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 12.7S 81.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 13.1S 81.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 192100Z POSITION NEAR 10.9S 87.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (EMERAUDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 910 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER THE EASTERN PORTION DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. A RECENT 191523Z METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A TIGHTLY-WOUND AND SYMMETRIC LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE CURRENT POSITION ESTIMATE SUGGESTS THAT TC 15S HAS BEGUN ITS PREVIOUSLY-ANTICIPATED POLEWARD TURN. THE INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES AND FMEE. THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM FOR TC 15S IS CURRENTLY TRANSITIONING FROM A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH TO A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH, ACCOUNTING FOR THE OBSERVED SHIFT IN TRACK SPEED AND TRAJECTORY. AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, TC EMERAUDE WILL CONTINUE TO TURN AND FOLLOW A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 96. BEYOND TAU 96, THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND WEAKEN, INDUCING A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND COMMENSURATE REDUCTION IN TRACK SPEED. THE SYSTEM MAY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS ENHANCED TOWARD AN UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER, OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME RESTRICTED AS THIS TROUGH TRANSLATES EASTWARD BEYOND TAU 24 AND TC 15S MOVES WESTWARD ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE PERIPHERY, LIKELY PREVENTING FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. THE SYSTEM MAY ONCE AGAIN INTENSIFY DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD DUE TO IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW POTENTIAL. DYNAMIC MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAVGEM AND COAMPS-TC SOLUTIONS, BOTH OF WHICH DEPICT LOW PROBABILITY POLEWARD TRACKS THAT WOULD CARRY THE SYSTEM INTO THE DEVELOPING SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST FAVORS THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DUE TO RELATIVELY ACCURATE PERFORMANCE OF THESE MODELS OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS AND THEIR REALISTIC DEPICTION OF THE SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN. GIVEN CONTINUED SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, PARTICULARLY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z AND 202100Z.//// 1516031506 113S 867E 25 1516031512 112S 862E 30 1516031518 111S 858E 40 1516031600 110S 854E 50 1516031606 108S 849E 55 1516031606 108S 849E 55 1516031612 107S 847E 75 1516031612 107S 847E 75 1516031612 107S 847E 75 1516031618 106S 844E 90 1516031618 106S 844E 90 1516031618 106S 844E 90 1516031700 105S 842E 95 1516031700 105S 842E 95 1516031700 105S 842E 95 1516031706 105S 841E 125 1516031706 105S 841E 125 1516031706 105S 841E 125 1516031712 105S 840E 120 1516031712 105S 840E 120 1516031712 105S 840E 120 1516031718 104S 839E 115 1516031718 104S 839E 115 1516031718 104S 839E 115 1516031800 101S 842E 105 1516031800 101S 842E 105 1516031800 101S 842E 105 1516031806 101S 848E 85 1516031806 101S 848E 85 1516031806 101S 848E 85 1516031812 101S 853E 70 1516031812 101S 853E 70 1516031812 101S 853E 70 1516031818 102S 859E 60 1516031818 102S 859E 60 1516031900 104S 865E 65 1516031900 104S 865E 65 1516031906 105S 869E 70 1516031906 105S 869E 70 1516031906 105S 869E 70 1516031912 106S 872E 75 1516031912 106S 872E 75 1516031912 106S 872E 75 1516031918 108S 874E 75 1516031918 108S 874E 75 1516031918 108S 874E 75 NNNN