WTXS52 PGTW 062100 WARNING ATCG MIL 15S SIO 170406201015 2017040618 15S ERNIE 002 01 195 07 SATL 030 T000 145S 1105E 040 R034 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 025 NW QD T012 153S 1103E 055 R050 015 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 040 NW QD T024 156S 1101E 065 R064 015 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 025 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 040 NW QD T036 159S 1095E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 065 NW QD T048 162S 1084E 055 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 065 NW QD T072 168S 1051E 040 R034 050 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 040 NW QD T096 180S 1011E 030 AMP 072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER 096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (ERNIE) WARNING NR 002 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (ERNIE) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 061800Z --- NEAR 14.5S 110.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S 110.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 15.3S 110.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 15.6S 110.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 15.9S 109.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 16.2S 108.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 16.8S 105.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 18.0S 101.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 062100Z POSITION NEAR 14.7S 110.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (ERNIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 511 NM NORTH- NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z AND 072100Z. // 1517040418 114S1147E 15 1517040500 116S1134E 15 1517040506 119S1123E 15 1517040512 122S1116E 25 1517040518 125S1112E 25 1517040600 129S1110E 30 1517040606 133S1108E 35 1517040612 138S1107E 35 1517040618 145S1105E 40 NNNN