WTXS52 PGTW 072100 WARNING ATCG MIL 15S SIO 170407204724 2017040718 15S ERNIE 004 01 205 02 SATL 010 T000 160S 1103E 130 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 120 SE QD 105 SW QD 080 NW QD T012 166S 1098E 135 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 085 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 150 SE QD 115 SW QD 080 NW QD T024 171S 1087E 105 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 085 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 140 SE QD 115 SW QD 085 NW QD T036 176S 1072E 065 R064 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 075 SE QD 065 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 135 SE QD 115 SW QD 080 NW QD T048 181S 1054E 050 R050 050 NE QD 065 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 115 SE QD 105 SW QD 090 NW QD T072 196S 1015E 040 R034 075 NE QD 105 SE QD 095 SW QD 080 NW QD T096 206S 0983E 035 R034 065 NE QD 095 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD T120 217S 0944E 030 AMP 096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER 120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (ERNIE) WARNING NR 004 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (ERNIE) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 071800Z --- NEAR 16.0S 110.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 110.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 16.6S 109.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 17.1S 108.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 17.6S 107.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 18.1S 105.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 19.6S 101.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 20.6S 98.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 21.7S 94.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 072100Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 110.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (ERNIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 435 NM NORTH- NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 41 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z AND 082100Z. // 1517040418 114S1147E 15 1517040500 116S1134E 15 1517040506 119S1123E 15 1517040512 122S1116E 25 1517040518 125S1112E 25 1517040600 129S1110E 30 1517040606 133S1108E 35 1517040612 138S1107E 35 1517040618 145S1105E 40 1517040700 149S1104E 65 1517040700 149S1104E 65 1517040706 154S1103E 95 1517040706 154S1103E 95 1517040706 154S1103E 95 1517040712 158S1104E 105 1517040712 158S1104E 105 1517040712 158S1104E 105 1517040718 160S1103E 130 1517040718 160S1103E 130 1517040718 160S1103E 130 NNNN