WTPS31 PGTW 131500 WARNING ATCG MIL 17P SWP 150313193204 2015031312 17P PAM 016 02 170 14 SATL 015 T000 177S 1687E 145 R064 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 180 SE QD 170 SW QD 160 NW QD T012 201S 1693E 135 R064 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 160 SE QD 155 SW QD 160 NW QD T024 237S 1714E 120 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 170 SE QD 170 SW QD 160 NW QD T036 278S 1746E 100 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 175 SE QD 175 SW QD 155 NW QD T048 328S 1785E 075 AMP 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM) WARNING NR 016 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 131200Z --- NEAR 17.7S 168.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.7S 168.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 20.1S 169.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 20 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 23.7S 171.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 25 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 27.8S 174.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 30 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 32.8S 178.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 131500Z POSITION NEAR 18.3S 168.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 302 NM NORTH- NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT DEEP AND TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS SURROUNDING A SHARPLY-DEFINED 15NM EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR LOOP WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND PHFO. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY RADIAL OUTFLOW. TC PAM IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS, TC 17P WILL ROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND BEGIN TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD. AS THE CYCLONE TRACKS MORE POLEWARD, IT WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS THAT WILL SLOWLY ERODE IT. TC PAM WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 24 AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, TC 17P WILL COMPLETE ETT AS AN INTENSE COLD CORE LOW. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z AND 141500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (NATHAN) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//