WTPS51 PGTW 010900 WARNING ATCG MIL 18P SWP 180401084732 2018040106 18P JOSIE 004 01 155 04 SATL 060 T000 199S 1772E 040 R034 065 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD T012 207S 1779E 040 R034 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 035 SW QD 045 NW QD T024 215S 1785E 035 R034 070 NE QD 085 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD T036 227S 1793E 035 R034 065 NE QD 100 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD T048 240S 1798W 030 T072 260S 1783W 025 AMP 036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER 048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER 072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 004 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 010600Z --- NEAR 19.9S 177.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.9S 177.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 20.7S 177.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 21.5S 178.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 22.7S 179.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 24.0S 179.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 26.0S 178.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 010900Z POSITION NEAR 20.1S 177.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 128 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE FINAL FRAMES OF ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTED CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST HAS LIMITED THE OUTFLOW TO THE WEST, PARTIALLY EXPOSING THE SURFACE FLOW AND INCREASING THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WHICH IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 30 KNOTS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ANIMATED MSI AND THE PGTW FIX WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS LOWERED TO 40 KNOTS, WITH DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 2.0 TO 2.5 (30 TO 35 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES, WITH DATA-T NUMBERS COMING DOWN SLIGHTLY. WHILE AUTOMATED FIXES REMAIN HIGHER AT 45 TO 50 KNOTS, OBSERVATIONS IN THE AREA DO NOT APPEAR TO SUPPORT THE HIGHER VALUES. JOSIE IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. SHIPS INSTENSITY OUTPUT INDICATES VWS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE, MAKING FURTHER INTENSIFICATION UNLIKELY. THE FORECAST WAS MAINTAINED OUT TO 72 HOURS, AT WHICH POINT 18P IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SUB-TROPICAL, HOWEVER, DISSIPATION BELOW 35 KNOTS IS EXPECTED BY TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z, 012100Z, 020300Z AND 020900Z. // 1818032906 181S1704E 15 1818032912 183S1706E 15 1818032918 183S1709E 15 1818033000 183S1713E 20 1818033006 183S1716E 20 1818033012 181S1722E 25 1818033018 179S1730E 25 1818033100 179S1738E 30 1818033106 180S1747E 30 1818033112 185S1759E 40 1818033118 190S1768E 40 1818040100 195S1770E 45 1818040106 199S1772E 40 NNNN