WTXS51 PGTW 180900 WARNING ATCG MIL 19S SIO 160418073718 2016041806 19S FANTALA 014 01 285 04 SATL 015 T000 093S 0497E 150 R064 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 095 SE QD 100 SW QD 080 NW QD T012 093S 0492E 145 R064 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 110 SE QD 115 SW QD 090 NW QD T024 096S 0493E 135 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 090 NW QD T036 100S 0500E 120 R064 030 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 075 SE QD 075 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 120 SE QD 125 SW QD 090 NW QD T048 108S 0511E 110 R064 030 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 075 SE QD 075 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 120 SE QD 125 SW QD 090 NW QD T072 126S 0531E 100 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 120 SE QD 115 SW QD 100 NW QD T096 133S 0534E 095 T120 137S 0531E 085 AMP SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FANTALA) WARNING NR 014 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 180600Z --- NEAR 9.3S 49.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 9.3S 49.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 9.3S 49.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 9.6S 49.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 10.0S 50.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 10.8S 51.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 12.6S 53.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 02 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 13.3S 53.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 13.7S 53.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 180900Z POSITION NEAR 9.3S 49.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (FANTALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 783 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A DISTINCT 16-NM EYE SURROUNDED BY AN INTENSE CONVECTIVE CORE STRUCTURE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW SUPPORTING THE CURRENT INTENSITY. AN 180331Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS AN INTENSE CONVECTIVE RING SURROUNDING THE EYE FEATURE WITH A SECOND CONVECTIVE RING BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. ADDITIONALLY, DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING IS WRAPPING IN FROM THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES. THE CURRENT POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN MSI IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY REMAINS AT 150 KNOTS BASED ON AN ASSESSMENT OF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES. TC 19S IT TRACKING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD IN A VERY CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT TO SUSTAIN THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS). THE CYCLONE HAS SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS INDICATING THAT THE STEERING MECHANISM IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT FROM THE MID-LATITUDE RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH TO A BUILDING NEAR- EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL DRIVE THE SYSTEM SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD TC FANTALA IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING SSTS AS IT GAINS LATITUDE. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, A SECOND MID-LATITUDE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN TO THE SOUTH TURNING THE CYCLONE WESTWARD TOWARDS MADAGASCAR. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE MULTIPLE TRACK CHANGES. DUE TO THIS DISAGREEMENT AND THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z AND 190900Z.// 1916041012 118S 750E 20 1916041018 122S 742E 20 1916041100 125S 734E 20 1916041106 127S 728E 25 1916041112 128S 722E 30 1916041118 129S 714E 35 1916041200 129S 705E 45 1916041206 129S 697E 60 1916041206 129S 697E 60 1916041212 129S 692E 60 1916041212 129S 692E 60 1916041218 129S 687E 65 1916041218 129S 687E 65 1916041300 129S 677E 65 1916041300 129S 677E 65 1916041306 128S 667E 80 1916041306 128S 667E 80 1916041306 128S 667E 80 1916041312 127S 659E 85 1916041312 127S 659E 85 1916041312 127S 659E 85 1916041318 127S 650E 85 1916041318 127S 650E 85 1916041318 127S 650E 85 1916041400 126S 642E 95 1916041400 126S 642E 95 1916041400 126S 642E 95 1916041406 125S 634E 105 1916041406 125S 634E 105 1916041406 125S 634E 105 1916041412 124S 625E 100 1916041412 124S 625E 100 1916041412 124S 625E 100 1916041418 123S 616E 100 1916041418 123S 616E 100 1916041418 123S 616E 100 1916041500 123S 607E 95 1916041500 123S 607E 95 1916041500 123S 607E 95 1916041506 123S 597E 105 1916041506 123S 597E 105 1916041506 123S 597E 105 1916041512 124S 587E 120 1916041512 124S 587E 120 1916041512 124S 587E 120 1916041518 124S 580E 130 1916041518 124S 580E 130 1916041518 124S 580E 130 1916041600 124S 571E 130 1916041600 124S 571E 130 1916041600 124S 571E 130 1916041606 123S 563E 130 1916041606 123S 563E 130 1916041606 123S 563E 130 1916041612 120S 553E 130 1916041612 120S 553E 130 1916041612 120S 553E 130 1916041618 115S 544E 135 1916041618 115S 544E 135 1916041618 115S 544E 135 1916041700 111S 535E 135 1916041700 111S 535E 135 1916041700 111S 535E 135 1916041706 106S 526E 135 1916041706 106S 526E 135 1916041706 106S 526E 135 1916041712 103S 517E 140 1916041712 103S 517E 140 1916041712 103S 517E 140 1916041718 98S 508E 150 1916041718 98S 508E 150 1916041718 98S 508E 150 1916041800 94S 501E 150 1916041800 94S 501E 150 1916041800 94S 501E 150 1916041806 93S 497E 150 1916041806 93S 497E 150 1916041806 93S 497E 150 NNNN