WTPS51 PGTW 210900 WARNING ATCG MIL 20P SWP 160421074137 2016042106 20P AMOS 006 01 125 04 SATL 040 T000 130S 1793W 045 R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD T012 130S 1783W 055 R050 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD T024 130S 1770W 065 R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 085 SE QD 085 SW QD 095 NW QD T036 133S 1756W 080 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 095 SE QD 095 SW QD 105 NW QD T048 139S 1741W 095 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 120 NW QD T072 151S 1717W 090 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 120 NW QD T096 164S 1697W 075 T120 179S 1677W 055 AMP SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (AMOS) WARNING NR 006 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (AMOS) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 210600Z --- NEAR 13.0S 179.3W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.0S 179.3W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 13.0S 178.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 13.0S 177.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 13.3S 175.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 13.9S 174.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 15.1S 171.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 16.4S 169.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 17.9S 167.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 210900Z POSITION NEAR 13.0S 179.0W. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (AMOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 507 NM WEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING A RAGGED BUT DEFINED CENTER. DESPITE THE UNIMPRESSIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE, A 210603Z WINDSAT COMPOSITE 37GHZ COLOR IMAGE DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE SURROUNDED BY A CYAN RING WITH MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THIS EXCELLENT LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE, IN COMBINATION WITH THE RADIAL OUTFLOW, SUGGESTS AN IMMINENT RAPID INTENSIFICATION PHASE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS)--HOWEVER, THE MICROWAVE HINTS AT A SLIGHTLY HIGHER INTENSITY OF 50 TO PERHAPS 55 KNOTS. TC 20P HAS TURNED SOUTHEASTWARD AND IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL STEERING RIDGE. OVERALL, DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE THEREFORE TC 20P IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS BY TAU 48. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 211500Z, 212100Z, 220300Z AND 220900Z.// 2016041418 135S1738E 15 2016041500 139S1742E 15 2016041506 142S1746E 25 2016041512 145S1750E 25 2016041518 148S1755E 25 2016041600 154S1761E 25 2016041606 160S1769E 25 2016041612 166S1777E 25 2016041618 172S1786E 25 2016041700 174S1795E 25 2016041706 172S1794W 25 2016041712 167S1784W 25 2016041718 164S1776W 25 2016041800 160S1768W 30 2016041806 155S1761W 30 2016041812 150S1756W 30 2016041818 148S1756W 25 2016041900 144S1758W 25 2016041906 141S1760W 25 2016041912 137S1767W 30 2016041918 135S1775W 30 2016042000 132S1781W 30 2016042006 129S1785W 35 2016042012 127S1791W 35 2016042018 126S1796W 40 2016042100 128S1796W 45 2016042106 130S1793W 45 NNNN