WTPS51 PGTW 221500 WARNING ATCG MIL 20P SWP 160422131814 2016042212 20P AMOS 011 01 090 08 SATL 030 T000 124S 1763W 090 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD T012 126S 1750W 105 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 065 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 065 NW QD T024 131S 1738W 115 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 075 NW QD T036 138S 1728W 115 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD T048 144S 1722W 110 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD T072 155S 1714W 100 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD T096 165S 1701W 085 T120 175S 1682W 065 AMP SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (AMOS) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 221200Z --- NEAR 12.4S 176.3W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.4S 176.3W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 12.6S 175.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 13.1S 173.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 13.8S 172.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 14.4S 172.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 15.5S 171.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 16.5S 170.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 17.5S 168.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 221500Z POSITION NEAR 12.5S 176.0W. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (AMOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 346 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A COMPACT, CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH AN INCIPIENT EYE. A 220926Z METOP-B 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A COMPACT CORE WITH A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. TC 20P HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, INCREASING ABOUT 35 KNOTS FROM 55 KNOTS TO 90 KNOTS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 90 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS) TO T5.5 (102 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES NEAR- RADIAL OUTFLOW, WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TC 20P IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR- EQUATORIAL STEERING RIDGE. THIS TRACK WILL DRIVE THE SYSTEM ABOUT 70- 80 NM SOUTH OF PAGO PAGO WITH THE GALE-FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS JUST SKIRTING AMERICAN SAMOA. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TURN SOUTH- SOUTHEASTWARD AS A WEAK EXTENSION OF THE STEERING RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTHEAST. AFTER TAU 72, TC 20P WILL RESUME A MORE EASTWARD TRAJECTORY AS IT BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES, WHICH WILL PRODUCE A WEAKENING TREND. OVERALL, DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z, 230300Z, 230900Z AND 231500Z.// 2016041418 135S1738E 15 2016041500 139S1742E 15 2016041506 142S1746E 25 2016041512 145S1750E 25 2016041518 148S1755E 25 2016041600 154S1761E 25 2016041606 160S1769E 25 2016041612 166S1777E 25 2016041618 172S1786E 25 2016041700 174S1795E 25 2016041706 172S1794W 25 2016041712 167S1784W 25 2016041718 164S1776W 25 2016041800 160S1768W 30 2016041806 155S1761W 30 2016041812 150S1756W 30 2016041818 148S1756W 25 2016041900 144S1758W 25 2016041906 141S1760W 25 2016041912 137S1767W 30 2016041918 135S1775W 30 2016042000 132S1781W 30 2016042006 129S1785W 35 2016042012 127S1791W 35 2016042018 126S1796W 40 2016042100 127S1795W 45 2016042106 127S1792W 50 2016042112 127S1789W 55 2016042112 127S1789W 55 2016042118 127S1782W 55 2016042118 127S1782W 55 2016042200 125S1776W 65 2016042200 125S1776W 65 2016042206 124S1771W 75 2016042206 124S1771W 75 2016042206 124S1771W 75 2016042209 123S1767W 80 2016042209 123S1767W 80 2016042209 123S1767W 80 2016042212 124S1763W 90 2016042212 124S1763W 90 2016042212 124S1763W 90 NNNN