WTPS51 PGTW 230900 WARNING ATCG MIL 20P SWP 160423083123 2016042306 20P AMOS 014 01 105 15 SATL 040 T000 128S 1732W 090 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 065 NE QD 075 SE QD 050 SW QD 055 NW QD T012 135S 1717W 090 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 065 NE QD 075 SE QD 055 SW QD 060 NW QD T024 144S 1707W 090 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 065 NE QD 075 SE QD 055 SW QD 060 NW QD T036 149S 1703W 085 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 065 NE QD 075 SE QD 055 SW QD 060 NW QD T048 154S 1700W 080 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 055 SW QD 060 NW QD T072 160S 1696W 070 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 085 SE QD 055 SW QD 060 NW QD T096 167S 1687W 060 T120 178S 1660W 050 AMP SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (AMOS) WARNING NR 014 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (AMOS) WARNING NR 014 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 230600Z --- NEAR 12.8S 173.2W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.8S 173.2W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 13.5S 171.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 14.4S 170.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 14.9S 170.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 15.4S 170.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 16.0S 169.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 16.7S 168.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 17.8S 166.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 230900Z POSITION NEAR 13.0S 172.8W. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (AMOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 171 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INCLUDING A 230528Z CORIOLIS AND A 230623Z SSMIS PASS. THE INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM MULTIPLE REPORTING AGENCIES. TC 20P HAS ACCELERATED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THIS RECENT CHANGE IN STORM MOTION HAS RESULTED IN A SIGNIFICANT EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE ANTICIPATED TRACK, WHICH NOW TAKES THE SYSTEM OVER TUTUILA, AMERICAN SAMOA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND STEER THE SYSTEM MORE SLOWLY POLEWARD IN THE MEDIUM TO EXTENDED RANGE. TC 20P WILL REMAIN QUITE INTENSE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM WATER. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE OVERALL FORECAST SCENARIO, PARTICULARLY IN THE NEAR- TERM, ALTHOUGH SPREAD INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE LATER TAUS AS A FEW MODELS DEPICT THE SYSTEM STALLING AS IT DISSIPATES WHILE OTHERS DEPICT ACCELERATION INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN. THE CURRENT FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE NEAR-TERM AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z AND 240900Z.// 2016041418 135S1738E 15 2016041500 139S1742E 15 2016041506 142S1746E 25 2016041512 145S1750E 25 2016041518 148S1755E 25 2016041600 154S1761E 25 2016041606 160S1769E 25 2016041612 166S1777E 25 2016041618 172S1786E 25 2016041700 174S1795E 25 2016041706 172S1794W 25 2016041712 167S1784W 25 2016041718 164S1776W 25 2016041800 160S1768W 30 2016041806 155S1761W 30 2016041812 150S1756W 30 2016041818 148S1756W 25 2016041900 144S1758W 25 2016041906 141S1760W 25 2016041912 137S1767W 30 2016041918 135S1775W 30 2016042000 132S1781W 30 2016042006 129S1785W 35 2016042012 127S1791W 35 2016042018 126S1796W 40 2016042100 127S1795W 45 2016042106 127S1792W 50 2016042112 127S1789W 55 2016042112 127S1789W 55 2016042118 127S1782W 55 2016042118 127S1782W 55 2016042200 125S1776W 65 2016042200 125S1776W 65 2016042206 124S1771W 75 2016042206 124S1771W 75 2016042206 124S1771W 75 2016042209 123S1767W 80 2016042209 123S1767W 80 2016042209 123S1767W 80 2016042212 123S1763W 90 2016042212 123S1763W 90 2016042212 123S1763W 90 2016042216 123S1760W 90 2016042216 123S1760W 90 2016042216 123S1760W 90 2016042218 123S1757W 90 2016042218 123S1757W 90 2016042218 123S1757W 90 2016042300 124S1747W 90 2016042300 124S1747W 90 2016042300 124S1747W 90 2016042306 128S1732W 90 2016042306 128S1732W 90 2016042306 128S1732W 90 NNNN