WTPS51 PGTW 010900 WARNING ATCG MIL 25P SWP 150701074644 2015070106 25P RAQUEL 003 01 245 04 SATL 060 T000 065S 1590E 045 R034 085 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 085 NW QD T012 070S 1587E 050 R034 090 NE QD 095 SE QD 095 SW QD 090 NW QD T024 075S 1585E 055 R050 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 095 NW QD T036 080S 1588E 060 R050 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 095 NW QD T048 083S 1589E 060 R050 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 095 NW QD T072 091S 1582E 060 R050 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 095 NW QD T096 104S 1567E 050 T120 120S 1549E 040 AMP 120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER NNNN MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBORL HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (RAQUEL) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 010600Z --- NEAR 6.5S 159.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 6.5S 159.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 7.0S 158.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 7.5S 158.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 8.0S 158.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 8.3S 158.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 9.1S 158.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 10.4S 156.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 12.0S 154.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 010900Z POSITION NEAR 6.6S 158.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (RAQUEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 791 NM NORTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI DEPICTS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LLCC. A 010611Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED SOUTHEASTWARD. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI, AFOREMENTIONED SSMIS IMAGE AND SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC RAQUEL IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOT) VWS BEING OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE EAST. SLOW MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER TAU 48, THE STR IS FORECAST TO BUILD, DRIVING THE SYSTEM SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MARGINAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST, LEADING TO SLOW INTENSIFICATION. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, INCREASING VWS WILL BEGIN TO DECAY TC 25P. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT SPREAD, LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z, 012100Z, 020300Z AND 020900Z.// NNNN 2515062800 35S1645E 20 2515062806 39S1641E 20 2515062812 43S1636E 25 2515062818 46S1631E 25 2515062900 43S1623E 25 2515062906 42S1620E 25 2515062912 42S1617E 25 2515062918 43S1613E 25 2515063000 42S1608E 30 2515063006 48S1605E 30 2515063012 56S1600E 35 2515063018 59S1597E 35 2515070100 63S1594E 45 2515070106 65S1590E 45