WTPN51 PGTW 050300 WARNING ATCG MIL 19W NWP 170905012829 2017090500 19W NINETEEN 002 01 340 08 SATL 020 T000 175N 1249E 025 T012 186N 1235E 020 T024 198N 1220E 020 AMP 000HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER 012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER 024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 002 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 050000Z --- NEAR 17.5N 124.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 17.5N 124.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 18.6N 123.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 19.8N 122.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 050300Z POSITION NEAR 17.8N 124.5E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 284 NM NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT HAS CONTINUED TO DEGRADE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS DUE TO AN INCREASE IN NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). VWS HAD BEEN 15-20 KNOTS DURING THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE, AND SHIPS GUIDANCE AT THE TIME INDICATED VWS WOULD REMAIN MARGINAL FOR 24-36 HOURS, BRINGING 19W INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA BEFORE INCREASING TO UNSUPPORTABLE LEVELS. HOWEVER, CIMSS VWS ESTIMATES HAVE NOW INCREASED TO 25-30 KNOTS. AS A RESULT, DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW DISPLACED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM TO THE WEST OF THE EXPOSED LLCC, AND IS TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG WITH THE MID-LAYER FLOW, WHILE THE LLCC IS DRIFTING NORTHWARD IN THE WEAK SURFACE FLOW. THE SHORTENED FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED ALONG THE RIGHT-MOST OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, NEAR THE SHALLOW BAROTROPIC MODEL (SBAM) SOLUTION, TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE LOW LEVEL STEERING FLOW. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS AND IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER WEAKEN BELOW THE WARNING THRESHOLD UNDER THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF STRONG VWS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 8 FEET. // 1917090218 151N1361E 15 1917090300 152N1353E 15 1917090306 154N1345E 15 1917090312 157N1329E 15 1917090318 163N1317E 15 1917090400 165N1288E 20 1917090406 162N1275E 20 1917090412 165N1259E 20 1917090418 167N1252E 30 1917090500 175N1249E 25 NNNN