WTIO51 PGTW 300900 WARNING ATCG MIL 01B NIO 190430071455 2019043006 01B FANI 014 01 320 11 SATL 040 T000 127N 0858E 090 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 115 SE QD 090 SW QD 095 NW QD T012 136N 0846E 100 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 160 SE QD 130 SW QD 100 NW QD T024 143N 0843E 110 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 170 SE QD 150 SW QD 100 NW QD T036 152N 0844E 115 R064 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 190 SE QD 140 SW QD 120 NW QD T048 164N 0847E 115 R064 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 190 SE QD 130 SW QD 100 NW QD T072 195N 0860E 105 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 160 SE QD 120 SW QD 040 NW QD T096 233N 0882E 070 R034 000 NE QD 120 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD T120 272N 0914E 030 AMP 096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND 120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (FANI) WARNING NR 014 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (FANI) WARNING NR 014 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 300600Z --- NEAR 12.7N 85.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.7N 85.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 13.6N 84.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 14.3N 84.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 15.2N 84.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 16.4N 84.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 19.5N 86.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 23.3N 88.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 27.2N 91.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 300900Z POSITION NEAR 12.9N 85.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (FANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 612 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF CALCUTTA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT A CONSOLIDATION OF THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND HINTS AT A DEVELOPING EYE FEATURE IN THE VISIBLE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON A DIMPLE FEATURE IN THE HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGERY. A 300337Z AMSU-B 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTING THE BROAD CIRCULATION WITH A BAND OF ROBUST CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A SMALL, BUT WELL-DEFINED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS), SUPPORTED BY AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) ESTIMATE OF T4.7 (84 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INIDICATES TC FANI LIES IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (15 KNOTS) VWS, HIGH SSTS (30-31 CELSIUS) AND A ROBUST POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE TRACK OF TC FANI HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, AS THE STR AS AN EXTENSION OF A NER HAS NOSED UP TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM OVER TH NORTHERN BAY OF BENGAL. TC 01B IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24 BEFORE TURNING NORTH THEN NORTHEASTWARD AS THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM SHIFTS TO A DEVELOPING STR OVER NORTHERN THAILAND. AFTER MAKING THE NORHTEASTWARD TURN, THE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE, SKIRTING THE EAST INDIAN COASTLINE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL SOUTHWEST OF CALCUTTA AROUND TAU 84. TC FANI IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 48 UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THEREAFTER THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO LAND INTERACTION, WHILE CONTINUING NORTHEAST. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS RELATIVELY STRONG AGREEMTN THROUGH TAU 72, WITH NAVGEM BEING THE SOLE OUTLIER TO THE EAST AND FASTER THAN THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE PACKAGE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, HEDGED SLIGHTLY TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301500Z, 302100Z, 010300Z AND 010900Z.// 0119042518 21N 905E 25 0119042600 26N 905E 25 0119042606 30N 905E 30 0119042612 34N 905E 30 0119042618 39N 903E 30 0119042700 45N 900E 35 0119042706 54N 898E 45 0119042712 62N 893E 45 0119042718 67N 887E 45 0119042800 71N 882E 50 0119042800 71N 882E 50 0119042806 73N 883E 50 0119042806 73N 883E 50 0119042812 75N 883E 45 0119042818 81N 881E 45 0119042900 88N 878E 45 0119042906 96N 873E 50 0119042906 96N 873E 50 0119042912 103N 871E 55 0119042912 103N 871E 55 0119042918 110N 868E 65 0119042918 110N 868E 65 0119042918 110N 868E 65 0119043000 119N 865E 85 0119043000 119N 865E 85 0119043000 119N 865E 85 0119043006 127N 858E 90 0119043006 127N 858E 90 0119043006 127N 858E 90 NNNN