WTIO51 PGTW 190300 WARNING ATCG MIL 01B NIO 200519012022 2020051900 01B AMPHAN 012 01 020 09 SATL RADR 020 T000 156N 0868E 120 R064 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 165 SE QD 180 SW QD 185 NW QD T012 174N 0873E 115 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 200 SE QD 160 SW QD 160 NW QD T024 195N 0879E 115 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 190 SE QD 140 SW QD 130 NW QD T036 220N 0887E 100 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 160 SE QD 120 SW QD 100 NW QD T048 243N 0894E 065 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD T072 263N 0916E 025 AMP 048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND 072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN) WARNING NR 012 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN) WARNING NR 012 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 190000Z --- NEAR 15.6N 86.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.6N 86.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 17.4N 87.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 19.5N 87.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 22.0N 88.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 24.3N 89.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 26.3N 91.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 190300Z POSITION NEAR 16.0N 86.9E. 19MAY20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH- NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL (MSI) AND ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT A WEAKENED SYSTEM WITH A UNIFORM CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) AND NO EYE, AT LEAST NOT IN THE VISIBLE OR INFRARED BANDS. THE INITIAL POSITION IN PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 182321Z DMSP 89 GHZ COLORIZED IMAGE WHICH SHOWS A NEWLY FORMED PRIMARY EYEWALL SOLIDLY ENTRENCHED ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE MICROWAVE EYE AT A RADIUS OF ABOUT 18 NM. THE EYEWALL IS OPEN ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE EYE, INDICATIVE OF THE EASTERLY SHEAR AND MID-LEVEL DRY AIR DEPICTED IN MODEL VERTICAL CROSS-SECTIONS THAT ARE IMPACTING THE SYSTEM AND PRECLUDING MORE RAPID CONSOLIDATION OF THE NEW EYEWALL AND COMPLETION OF THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY LONG-RANGE RADAR DATA FROM INDIA WHICH CAPTURED THE INTENSE WESTERN EYEWALL. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 120 KNOTS IS HELD ABOVE THE PGTW CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T5.5 (102 KNOTS), HEDGED UPWARD BASED ON AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T6.3 (122 KNOTS). ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT TC 01B IS TRACKING THROUGH A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VWS, VERY WARM (31 DEG CELSIUS) SSTS AND ROBUST POLEWARD AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE VWS AND MID-LEVEL DRY AIR MENTIONED EARLIER ARE THE PRIMARY CONSTRAINTS ON THE SYSTEM AT THE MOMENT WITH CIMSS SHEAR ESTIMATES CURRENTLY 17.8 KNOTS FROM 150 DEG. TC 01B IS TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER NER TO THE EAST AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MOTION THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WITH THE ERC NEARING COMPLETION AND THE EYEWALL BEGINNING TO REESTABLISH ITSELF IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE SYSTEM WILL EXPERIENCE SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING THROUGH TAU 12 BEFORE THE NEW EYE FULLY CONSOLIDATES. ONCE THE EYE BECOMES FULLY ESTABLISHED THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 24 AS THE NEW CORE BECOMES MORE ROBUST AND THE SHEAR VECTOR BECOMES MORE ALIGNED WITH THE STORM MOTION, RESULTING IN LOWER EFFECTIVE SHEAR. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL SOUTH OF KOLKATA NEAR TAU 36 THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND THEN DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF BHUTAN DUE TO RAPIDLY INREASING WESTERLY VWS AND TERRAIN INTERACTION. TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 WITH ONLY MINIMAL SPREAD (25 NM) AT LANDFALL, WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY THEREAFTER AS MODELS HAVE DIFFICULY IN TRACKING THE VORTEX. WITH THE VERY TIGHT PACKING IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. INTENSITY GUIDANCE MOSTLY SHOWS A STEADY WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COAMPS-TC AND HWRF, BOTH OF WHICH INDICATE A NEAR-TERM STEADY INTENSITY OR EVEN SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS BUT BELOW THE HWRF THROUGH TAU 24, THEN TRACKS THE HWRF THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE ERC AND THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 50 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z, 191500Z, 192100Z AND 200300Z.// 0120051506 87N 872E 20 0120051512 91N 867E 20 0120051518 94N 863E 25 0120051600 97N 861E 30 0120051606 100N 859E 35 0120051612 103N 860E 40 0120051618 107N 861E 50 0120051618 107N 861E 50 0120051700 110N 863E 60 0120051700 110N 863E 60 0120051706 114N 863E 65 0120051706 114N 863E 65 0120051706 114N 863E 65 0120051712 120N 864E 75 0120051712 120N 864E 75 0120051712 120N 864E 75 0120051718 126N 865E 115 0120051718 126N 865E 115 0120051718 126N 865E 115 0120051800 130N 864E 130 0120051800 130N 864E 130 0120051800 130N 864E 130 0120051806 134N 862E 140 0120051806 134N 862E 140 0120051806 134N 862E 140 0120051812 140N 863E 140 0120051812 140N 863E 140 0120051812 140N 863E 140 0120051818 148N 865E 130 0120051818 148N 865E 130 0120051818 148N 865E 130 0120051900 156N 868E 120 0120051900 156N 868E 120 0120051900 156N 868E 120 NNNN