WTIO51 PGTW 192100 WARNING ATCG MIL 01B NIO 200519191940 2020051918 01B AMPHAN 015 01 355 09 SATL 040 T000 183N 0869E 100 R064 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 090 SE QD 100 SW QD 105 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 200 SE QD 145 SW QD 160 NW QD T012 204N 0872E 090 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 180 SE QD 120 SW QD 110 NW QD T024 227N 0880E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 140 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD T036 246N 0886E 045 T048 259N 0896E 030 AMP 024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND 036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND 048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN) WARNING NR 015 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN) WARNING NR 015 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 191800Z --- NEAR 18.3N 86.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.3N 86.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 20.4N 87.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 22.7N 88.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 24.6N 88.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 25.9N 89.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 192100Z POSITION NEAR 18.8N 87.0E. 19MAY20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 271 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 01B HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRICAL AND SOMEWHAT SURPRISINGLY MAINTAINED A FAIR AMOUNT OF DEEP, COLD CONVECTION AND HINTS OF AN EYE OR WARM SPOT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE LACK OF CLEARLY DEFINED CENTER AND THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCASE, SOME TILT IN THE CORE AS DEPICTED IN BOTH HWRF CROSS-SECTIONS AND COMPARISON OF LOW AND HIGH FREQUENCY MICROWAVE DATA FROM 191306Z. RADAR DATA ALSO DOES NOT CLEARLY IDENTIFY THE CENTER BUT BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA IT APPEARS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CENTER TOOK A SLIGHTLY WEST OF NORTH JOG OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AND CURRENLTY LIES ROUGHLY DUE SOUTH OF PARADIP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T5.5 (102 KNOTS) FROM PGTW SUPPORTED BY A SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 108 KNOTS. THE OVERALL ENVIORNMENT IS MARGINAL, WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (25-30 KNOTS) VWS BEING OFFSET BY ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (31 DEG CELSIUS) SSTS. VWS HAS LIKELY PEAKED ACCORDING TO THE LATEST CIMSS ANALYSIS, AND THE SHIPS FORECAST PRODUCT INDICATES A SLIGHT LOWERING OF THE OVERALL SHEAR THROUGH LANDFALL ACCOMPANIED BY A SHIFT IN THE SHEAR VECTOR TO BECOME MORE IN-PHASE WITH THE STORM MOTION. THIS IS LIKELY THE REASON WHY THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN THE INNER CORE AND FIGHT OFF THE HIGH SHEAR VALUES. TC 01B IS TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NER TO THE EAST. WHILE THE SIX HOUR TRACK IS SLIGHTLY WEST OF DUE NORTH, THIS IS LIKELY JUST A WOBBLE AND RESUMPTION OF A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH LANDFALL IS EXPECTED. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL SOUTH OF KOLKATA NEAR TAU 30. AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD, THE SHEAR WILL BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE ON THE INTENSITY THROUGH LANDFALL. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS DECREASING OR STEADY SHEAR VALUES THROUGH TAU 18 WITH THE SHEAR VECTOR VEERING TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WHICH WOULD PUT IT ALMOST DIRECTLY IN PHASE WITH THE STORM MOTION. THE NET RESULT WILL BE WEAKENING PRIOR TO LANDFALL, BUT NOT AS MUCH AS WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH 25-30 KNOT SHEAR VALUES, WITH LANDFALL INTENSITY FORECAST AT 90 KNOTS. AFTER LANDFALL, RAPIDLY INCREASING WESTERLY VWS COMBINED WITH TERRAIN INTERACTION WILL SERVE TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK THROUGH TAU 36, WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY THEREAFTER AS MODEL TRACKERS EXPERIENCE DIFFICULTY IN TRACKING THE RAPIDLY WEAKENING VORTEX. THE JTWC TRACK LIKES WEST OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE AT TAU 12 REFLECTING THE CURRENT WOBBLE IN STORM MOTION, THEN TRACKS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE TIGHTEST PACKING OF MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z, 200900Z, 201500Z AND 202100Z.// 0120051506 87N 872E 20 0120051512 91N 867E 20 0120051518 94N 863E 25 0120051600 97N 861E 30 0120051606 100N 859E 35 0120051612 103N 860E 40 0120051618 107N 861E 50 0120051618 107N 861E 50 0120051700 110N 863E 60 0120051700 110N 863E 60 0120051706 114N 863E 65 0120051706 114N 863E 65 0120051706 114N 863E 65 0120051712 120N 864E 75 0120051712 120N 864E 75 0120051712 120N 864E 75 0120051718 126N 865E 115 0120051718 126N 865E 115 0120051718 126N 865E 115 0120051800 130N 864E 130 0120051800 130N 864E 130 0120051800 130N 864E 130 0120051806 134N 862E 140 0120051806 134N 862E 140 0120051806 134N 862E 140 0120051812 140N 863E 140 0120051812 140N 863E 140 0120051812 140N 863E 140 0120051818 148N 865E 130 0120051818 148N 865E 130 0120051818 148N 865E 130 0120051900 156N 868E 120 0120051900 156N 868E 120 0120051900 156N 868E 120 0120051906 165N 869E 110 0120051906 165N 869E 110 0120051906 165N 869E 110 0120051912 174N 870E 100 0120051912 174N 870E 100 0120051912 174N 870E 100 0120051918 183N 869E 100 0120051918 183N 869E 100 0120051918 183N 869E 100 NNNN