WTIO51 PGTW 200300 WARNING ATCG MIL 01B NIO 200520014034 2020052000 01B AMPHAN 016 01 015 09 SATL RADR 040 T000 192N 0874E 095 R064 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 095 SE QD 100 SW QD 095 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 200 SE QD 150 SW QD 165 NW QD T012 215N 0881E 085 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 160 SE QD 100 SW QD 090 NW QD T024 236N 0889E 055 R050 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 130 SE QD 100 SW QD 065 NW QD T036 249N 0894E 040 T048 258N 0902E 025 AMP 024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND 036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND 048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN) WARNING NR 016 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN) WARNING NR 016 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 200000Z --- NEAR 19.2N 87.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.2N 87.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 21.5N 88.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 23.6N 88.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 24.9N 89.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 25.8N 90.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 200300Z POSITION NEAR 19.8N 87.6E. 20MAY20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 212 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH- NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 01B HAS MAINTAINED ITS OVERALL SYMMETRICAL CORE STRUCTURE THROUGH THE 0000Z HOUR, THOUGH SUBSEQUENT IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) IS STARTING ERODE ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE AND THE SYSTEM IS BECOMING INCREASINLY RAGGED LOOKING. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON 192307Z DMSP SSMIS 37 GHZ AND 89 GHZ COLORIZED IMAGES, SHOWING A WEAK MICROWAVE EYE IN THE FORMER AND MUCH STRONGER MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE LATTER. RADAR DATA FROM INDIA SUPPORTS THE ASSESSMENT OF THE MICROWAVE DATA AND THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AT A GENEROUS 95 KNOTS BASED ON A PGTW CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T5.5 (102 KNOTS), HEDGED SLIGHTLY LOWER IN LIGHT OF AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T4.8 (87 KNOTS) AND A SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 75 KNOTS. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MARGINAL, WITH MODERATE (20 TO 25 KNOTS) VWS, STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (30-31 CELSIUS) SSTS. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER NER CENTERED FAR TO THE EAST AND THIS TRACK MOTION IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHEAR HAS BEGUN TO TAKE ITS TOLL ON THE SYSTEM AS INDICATED BY THE EROSION OF THE CDO AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, WITH AN ADDITIONAL 10 KNOTS OF WEAKENING FORECAST PRIOR TO LANDFALL. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL SOUTH OF KOLKATA NEAR 201200Z, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK INLAND WHILE RAPIDLY WEAKENING DUE TO INCREASED WESTERLY VWS AND TERRAIN INTERACTION, BEFORE DISSIPATING BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z, 201500Z, 202100Z AND 210300Z.// 0120051506 87N 872E 20 0120051512 91N 867E 20 0120051518 94N 863E 25 0120051600 97N 861E 30 0120051606 100N 859E 35 0120051612 103N 860E 40 0120051618 107N 861E 50 0120051618 107N 861E 50 0120051700 110N 863E 60 0120051700 110N 863E 60 0120051706 114N 863E 65 0120051706 114N 863E 65 0120051706 114N 863E 65 0120051712 120N 864E 75 0120051712 120N 864E 75 0120051712 120N 864E 75 0120051718 126N 865E 115 0120051718 126N 865E 115 0120051718 126N 865E 115 0120051800 130N 864E 130 0120051800 130N 864E 130 0120051800 130N 864E 130 0120051806 134N 862E 140 0120051806 134N 862E 140 0120051806 134N 862E 140 0120051812 140N 863E 140 0120051812 140N 863E 140 0120051812 140N 863E 140 0120051818 148N 865E 130 0120051818 148N 865E 130 0120051818 148N 865E 130 0120051900 156N 868E 120 0120051900 156N 868E 120 0120051900 156N 868E 120 0120051906 165N 869E 110 0120051906 165N 869E 110 0120051906 165N 869E 110 0120051912 174N 870E 100 0120051912 174N 870E 100 0120051912 174N 870E 100 0120051918 183N 871E 100 0120051918 183N 871E 100 0120051918 183N 871E 100 0120052000 192N 874E 95 0120052000 192N 874E 95 0120052000 192N 874E 95 NNNN