WTIO51 PGTW 172100 WARNING ATCG MIL 01A NIO 210517192427 2021051718 01A TAUKTAE 015 01 360 08 SATL 020 T000 208N 0713E 110 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 090 SE QD 065 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 135 SE QD 115 SW QD 100 NW QD T012 225N 0716E 080 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 025 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 045 NE QD 100 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD T024 244N 0725E 050 T036 262N 0739E 030 AMP 012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND 024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND 036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE) WARNING NR 015 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE) WARNING NR 015 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 171800Z --- NEAR 20.8N 71.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.8N 71.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 22.5N 71.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 24.4N 72.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 26.2N 73.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 172100Z POSITION NEAR 21.2N 71.4E. 17MAY21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM NORTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 01A HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL, WITH A 20NM EYE FEATURE, SURROUNDED BY A SOLID RING OF COLD CLOUD TOPS IN THE BD ENHANCEMENT. THE SYSTEM WAS IN THE PROCESS OF CROSSING THE SHORELINE AT THE 171800Z HOUR, VERY NEAR TO JAFARABAD, INDIA. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE 20NM EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 110 KTS WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE, REFLECTING THE IMPROVED INFRARED SIGNATURE, COLDER CLOUD TOPS AND WARMER EYE TEMP. MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.0 (115 KTS) FROM PGTW, T5.5 (102 KTS) FROM DEMS, AND AN ADT ESTIMATE OF T6.0, LEND ADDITIONAL CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS CONDUCIVE, WITH LOW (10-15 KTS) VWS AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. NOW THAT THE SYSTEM IS OVER LAND HOWEVER, IT IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF LAND INTERACTION AND RAPIDLY INCREASING VWS AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD. SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THE GULF OF KHAMBAHT THROUGH TAU 12 EVEN THOUGH THE SYSTEM ITSELF WILL BE CENTERED WELL INLAND. TC 01A IS FORECAST TO FULLY DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 36 AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE ARAVALLI MOUNTAINS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 38 FEET.// 0121051212 94N 672E 25 0121051218 94N 687E 20 0121051300 95N 700E 20 0121051306 97N 710E 25 0121051312 101N 714E 30 0121051318 105N 716E 30 0121051400 109N 718E 30 0121051406 114N 720E 40 0121051412 119N 722E 40 0121051418 123N 725E 45 0121051500 128N 730E 50 0121051500 128N 730E 50 0121051506 135N 733E 55 0121051506 135N 733E 55 0121051512 140N 733E 60 0121051512 140N 733E 60 0121051518 144N 731E 65 0121051518 144N 731E 65 0121051518 144N 731E 65 0121051600 150N 729E 75 0121051600 150N 729E 75 0121051600 150N 729E 75 0121051606 159N 728E 90 0121051606 159N 728E 90 0121051606 159N 728E 90 0121051612 168N 726E 100 0121051612 168N 726E 100 0121051612 168N 726E 100 0121051618 178N 720E 110 0121051618 178N 720E 110 0121051618 178N 720E 110 0121051700 184N 718E 120 0121051700 184N 718E 120 0121051700 184N 718E 120 0121051706 192N 714E 115 0121051706 192N 714E 115 0121051706 192N 714E 115 0121051712 200N 713E 110 0121051712 200N 713E 110 0121051712 200N 713E 110 0121051718 208N 713E 110 0121051718 208N 713E 110 0121051718 208N 713E 110 NNNN