WTIO51 PGTW 240300 WARNING ATCG MIL 02B NIO 210524020315 2021052400 02B TWO 001 01 055 07 SATL SYNP 060 T000 160N 0898E 035 R034 150 NE QD 130 SE QD 150 SW QD 150 NW QD T012 168N 0897E 045 R034 220 NE QD 190 SE QD 200 SW QD 185 NW QD T024 179N 0893E 060 R050 030 NE QD 090 SE QD 100 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 190 SE QD 210 SW QD 180 NW QD T036 191N 0887E 070 R064 020 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 190 SE QD 190 SW QD 160 NW QD T048 204N 0879E 080 R064 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 180 SE QD 180 SW QD 130 NW QD T072 223N 0861E 045 R034 040 NE QD 125 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD T096 238N 0836E 030 AMP 072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND 096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (TWO) WARNING NR 001 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (TWO) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 240000Z --- NEAR 16.0N 89.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.0N 89.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 16.8N 89.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 17.9N 89.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 19.1N 88.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 20.4N 87.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 22.3N 86.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 23.8N 83.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 240300Z POSITION NEAR 16.2N 89.8E. 24MAY21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 404 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (TWO) IS SHOWING PRONOUNCED CONSOLIDATION AND TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE FIELDS AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). PREVIOUSLY, IT CARRIED THE SIGNATURE AND BROAD WIND FIELDS OF A MONSOON DEPRESSION, BUT RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) IMAGERY AND RECENT MULTISPECTRAL (MSI) SHOW SUBSTANTIAL TIGHTENING OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE DUE TO AN EXPOSED LLCC AND TWO MICROWAVE IMAGES (A 232223Z SSMI AND 232245Z SSMIS). A 231149Z SMAP PASS SHOWED THE HEAVY ASYMMETRY OF THE SYSTEM WITH GALE FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OVER THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE BUT MUCH LIGHTER EASTERLIES OVER THE POLEWARD SEMICIRCLE. HOWEVER, BUOY OBSERVATIONS IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OVER THE PAST 8 HOURS VERIFY INCREASING INTENSITY OF THE EASTERLIES AND FALLING PRESSURES ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. PREVIOUSLY, THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WAS FORCED BY A WESTERLY WIND BURST ASSOCIATED WITH THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION AND THE INDIAN MONSOON CIRCULATION, BUT NOW THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO ROTATE INDEPENDENTLY AS IT BEGINS A POLEWARD DRIFT. THE INITIAL TRACK IS FOR THE FIRST TWELVE HOURS IS UNCERTAIN, WITH THE NEWLY FORMING LLCC ROTATING AROUND A BROAD AND DIFFUSE CENTROID, BUT BY TAU 12 THE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE INTO A NORTHWESTERLY TRACK, ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) SOUTHEAST ASIA. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TRACK DIRECTLY TOWARDS THE AREA OF PARADIP, INDIA. 31 DEGREE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, THE BROAD NATURE OF THE CIRCULATION AND LACK OF A WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE, ALONG WITH MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-25 KT) FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTORS ON INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES SUPPRESSED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE FIGHTING 20-30KTS OF SHEAR THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, THE SHEAR WILL EASE SUBSTANTIALLY AND TC 02B WILL PEAK IN INTENSITY JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL. DUE TO ITS ORIGIN AS A MONSOON DEPRESSION AND THE VIGOROUS MONSOONAL SOUTHWESTERLIES, TC 02B WILL CARRY EXPANSIVE GALE FORCE WIND FIELDS THROUGHOUT ITS LIFE SPAN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND 250300Z. // 0221052218 155N 882E 25 0221052300 155N 884E 25 0221052306 155N 886E 25 0221052312 155N 888E 30 0221052318 156N 892E 35 0221052400 160N 898E 35 NNNN