WTIO51 PGTW 212100 WARNING ATCG MIL 03A NIO 201121193032 2020112118 03A THREE 001 01 260 15 SATL 030 T000 108N 0556E 035 R034 040 NE QD 000 SE QD 030 SW QD 065 NW QD T012 106N 0532E 040 R034 040 NE QD 000 SE QD 030 SW QD 065 NW QD T024 105N 0510E 035 R034 040 NE QD 000 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD T036 107N 0491E 025 T048 109N 0479E 020 AMP 036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND 048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (THREE) WARNING NR 001 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (THREE) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 211800Z --- NEAR 10.8N 55.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 10.8N 55.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 10.6N 53.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 10.5N 51.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 10.7N 49.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 10.9N 47.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 212100Z POSITION NEAR 10.8N 55.0E. 21NOV20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 634 NM EAST OF ADEN, YEMEN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS SYMMETRICAL, FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER TOP OF THE OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON TWO ASCAT BULLSEYE PASSES, AT 211612Z AND 211727Z AND A WELL-DEFINED LOW EMISSIVITY REGION EVIDENT IN TH 211725 AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE 211612Z ASCAT-A BULLSEYE SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATES A SWATH OF 35-40 KNOT WINDS ON ARRAYED ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION, WITH 30-35 KNOTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN AND NORTHEASTERN QUADRANTS. THE MOST RECENT PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) LENDS ADDITIONAL SUPPORT TO THE INITIAL INTENSITY. WITH LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VWS, LUKEWARM (27-28 DEG C) AND MODERATE WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, THE ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS SOME MINIMAL NEAR-TERM INTENSIFICATION. TC 03A IS TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER STR OVER THE SOUTHERN ARABIAN PENINSULA. TC 03A IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24, BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHEAST SOMALI COAST NEAR RAS HAFUN, BEFORE SHIFTING TO A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK AFTER LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSITY SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, TO A PEAK OF 40 KNOTS, BEFORE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY BEFORE LANDFALL DUE TO INCREASED VWS AND COOLER WATERS. AFTGER LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM IS FORECSAT RAPIDLY WEAKEN OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF THE NORTHEAST SOMALIA, DISSIPATING AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH THE EGRR AND ECMWF DEPICTING A TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN COAST OF SOMALIA WHILE THE NAVGEM AND GFS SOLUTIONS MOVE THE VORTEX SOUTHWARD, PARALLEL TO THE EAST COAST OF SOMALIA AND LOSE THE VORTEX ALTOGETHER BY TAU 48. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES CLOSE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z, 220900Z, 221500Z AND 222100Z.// 0320111906 109N 685E 15 0320111912 109N 675E 15 0320111918 109N 665E 15 0320112000 110N 650E 15 0320112006 112N 637E 20 0320112012 112N 627E 20 0320112018 110N 617E 25 0320112100 110N 605E 30 0320112106 112N 589E 30 0320112112 110N 571E 30 0320112118 108N 556E 35 NNNN