WTXS51 PGTW 162100 WARNING ATCG MIL 01S SIO 201116193602 2020111618 01S ALICIA 010 01 225 04 SATL 020 T000 166S 0718E 045 R034 040 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD T012 173S 0713E 040 R034 040 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD T024 184S 0707E 035 R034 020 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 000 NW QD T036 196S 0697E 030 AMP 024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER 036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ALICIA) WARNING NR 010 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ALICIA) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 161800Z --- NEAR 16.6S 71.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 71.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 17.3S 71.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 18.4S 70.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 19.6S 69.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 162100Z POSITION NEAR 16.8S 71.7E. 16NOV20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ALICIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 571 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) INDICATES A DECAPITATED SYSTEM, WITH THE MID-LEVEL ROTATION RACING SOUTHEAST, WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS REMAINS FAR TO THE NORTHWEST. WHILE THE LLCC IS OBSCURED UNDER HIGH CIRRUS, THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 161722Z ASCAT-B BULLSEYE PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) AND CONFIRMED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT-B PASS, SHOWING 45 KNOT WINDS IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD, HAVING SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, AS THE STEERING MECHANISM SHIFTS FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TO THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (15-20 KNOTS) VWS, AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (NEAR 26 DEG CELSIUS). THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC 01S IS FORECAST TO STEADILY WEAKEN AS IT TRANSITS SOUTH OF PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS, AND CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED APART, DISSIPATING AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 36. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36, WITH UKMET ON THE RIGHT AND AFUM ON THE LEFT. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES ALONG THE POLEWARD EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z AND 172100Z.// 0120111112 37S 912E 15 0120111118 39S 904E 25 0120111200 41S 896E 25 0120111206 43S 889E 25 0120111212 44S 878E 25 0120111218 46S 868E 25 0120111300 49S 855E 30 0120111306 54S 842E 30 0120111312 60S 827E 30 0120111318 65S 815E 35 0120111400 74S 797E 45 0120111406 85S 785E 45 0120111412 95S 772E 50 0120111412 95S 772E 50 0120111418 105S 762E 55 0120111418 105S 762E 55 0120111500 117S 749E 55 0120111500 117S 749E 55 0120111506 126S 741E 60 0120111506 126S 741E 60 0120111512 136S 733E 60 0120111512 136S 733E 60 0120111518 145S 730E 65 0120111518 145S 730E 65 0120111518 145S 730E 65 0120111600 154S 727E 65 0120111600 154S 727E 65 0120111600 154S 727E 65 0120111606 160S 723E 65 0120111606 160S 723E 65 0120111606 160S 723E 65 0120111612 163S 721E 55 0120111612 163S 721E 55 0120111618 166S 718E 45 NNNN