WTXS51 PGTW 092100 WARNING ATCG MIL 02S SIO 201209191547 2020120918 02S BONGOYO 006 02 225 03 SATL 060 T000 207S 0759E 040 R034 085 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 045 NW QD T012 209S 0754E 035 R034 085 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 045 NW QD T024 211S 0740E 035 R034 030 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 000 NW QD T036 210S 0715E 030 T048 209S 0685E 030 AMP 024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER 036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER 048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGOYO) WARNING NR 006 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGOYO) WARNING NR 006 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 091800Z --- NEAR 20.7S 75.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.7S 75.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 20.9S 75.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 21.1S 74.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 21.0S 71.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 20.9S 68.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 092100Z POSITION NEAR 20.7S 75.8E. 09DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGOYO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 840 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE IMPACT OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WITH MODERATE CONVECTION SHEARED TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST OF THE ASSESSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 091658Z PARTIAL ASCAT-C PASS, WHICH CAPTURED THE CENTER AND THE EASTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE, AS AN OVERALL AVERAGE OF DVORAK AND SCATTEROMETER ESTIMATES INCLUDING A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KTS), AN AUTOMATED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) ESTIMATE OF ADT 3.8 AND A SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 57 KNOTS. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ASCAT-C PASS INDICATED MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 35 KNOTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN AND EASTERN QUADRANTS. TC BONGOYO IS CURRENTLY TRACKING VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD, AS THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING A SHIFT. THE STRONG STR LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS IN PLACE, HOWEVER THE SYSTEM IS BEING DECAPITATED BY SHEAR, AND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOW COMING UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM IS TRACKIN THROUGH AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), COOL (25-26 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) THAT IS OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY CONTINUED ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THROUGH TAU 12 THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE STEERING RIDGE, THEREAFTER AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES THE DOMINATE STEERING PATTERN, THE SYSTEM SHIFTS TO A NEARLY DUE WEST TRACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THROUGH TAU 48, AND AFTER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION DECOUPLES COMPLETELY FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL CORE, THE SYSTEM WILL STEADILY WEAKEN, FULLY DISSIPATING BY TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// 0220112612 112S 913E 15 0220112618 115S 918E 15 0220112700 119S 921E 15 0220112706 124S 924E 20 0220112712 129S 926E 25 0220112718 131S 930E 20 0220112800 134S 929E 20 0220112806 132S 922E 20 0220112812 132S 915E 20 0220112818 127S 914E 20 0220112900 123S 915E 20 0220112906 120S 915E 20 0220112912 116S 909E 20 0220112918 112S 902E 25 0220113000 109S 896E 25 0220113006 109S 890E 25 0220113012 110S 884E 25 0220113018 109S 877E 25 0220120100 106S 871E 25 0220120106 103S 865E 20 0220120112 98S 854E 20 0220120118 90S 842E 20 0220120200 85S 835E 20 0220120206 79S 830E 20 0220120212 76S 832E 20 0220120218 75S 838E 20 0220120300 74S 847E 20 0220120306 69S 849E 20 0220120312 68S 852E 20 0220120318 68S 854E 25 0220120400 69S 857E 25 0220120406 70S 860E 20 0220120412 72S 862E 25 0220120418 74S 864E 25 0220120500 76S 865E 25 0220120506 82S 867E 25 0220120512 88S 868E 25 0220120518 95S 867E 25 0220120600 107S 864E 30 0220120606 116S 855E 30 0220120612 124S 846E 30 0220120618 132S 837E 30 0220120700 142S 830E 35 0220120706 146S 819E 35 0220120712 151S 809E 40 0220120718 155S 800E 45 0220120800 159S 793E 55 0220120800 159S 793E 55 0220120806 168S 781E 55 0220120806 168S 781E 55 0220120812 177S 775E 55 0220120812 177S 775E 55 0220120818 187S 768E 55 0220120818 187S 768E 55 0220120900 198S 765E 55 0220120900 198S 765E 55 0220120906 203S 763E 50 0220120906 203S 763E 50 0220120912 205S 761E 45 0220120918 207S 759E 40 NNNN