WTXS51 PGTW 102100 WARNING ATCG MIL 02S SIO 201210201228 2020121018 02S BONGOYO 008 02 225 08 SATL 060 T000 222S 0753E 035 R034 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD T012 221S 0734E 035 R034 030 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 030 NW QD T024 218S 0709E 030 T036 217S 0681E 030 AMP 024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER 036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGOYO) WARNING NR 008 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGOYO) WARNING NR 008 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 101800Z --- NEAR 22.2S 75.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.2S 75.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 22.1S 73.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 21.8S 70.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 21.7S 68.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 102100Z POSITION NEAR 22.2S 74.8E. 10DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGOYO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 920 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH FLARING MODERATE CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH EXPOSED SHALLOW BANDING IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A PARTIAL 101609Z ASCAT-A PASS WHICH SHOWED THE ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH THE HIGHER WIND SPEEDS CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS, WHICH SHOWED 35 KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC, WITH WEAKER WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST, AND HEDGED ABOVE THE PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS). TC 02S HAS STARTED TO ACCELERATE TO THE SOUTHWEST, AS THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM SHIFTS TO THE LOW-LEVEL STR TO THE SOUTHWEST. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, TC 02S WILL SHIFT TO A WESTWARD TRACK, AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON THIS WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. THE SYSTEM WILL STEADILY WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VWS, AND COOL (25 DEG C) SSTS, WITH DISSIPATION FORECAST BY TAU 36. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT 0220112612 112S 913E 15 0220112618 115S 918E 15 0220112700 119S 921E 15 0220112706 124S 924E 20 0220112712 129S 926E 25 0220112718 131S 930E 20 0220112800 134S 929E 20 0220112806 132S 922E 20 0220112812 132S 915E 20 0220112818 127S 914E 20 0220112900 123S 915E 20 0220112906 120S 915E 20 0220112912 116S 909E 20 0220112918 112S 902E 25 0220113000 109S 896E 25 0220113006 109S 890E 25 0220113012 110S 884E 25 0220113018 109S 877E 25 0220120100 106S 871E 25 0220120106 103S 865E 20 0220120112 98S 854E 20 0220120118 90S 842E 20 0220120200 85S 835E 20 0220120206 79S 830E 20 0220120212 76S 832E 20 0220120218 75S 838E 20 0220120300 74S 847E 20 0220120306 69S 849E 20 0220120312 68S 852E 20 0220120318 68S 854E 25 0220120400 69S 857E 25 0220120406 70S 860E 20 0220120412 72S 862E 25 0220120418 74S 864E 25 0220120500 76S 865E 25 0220120506 82S 867E 25 0220120512 88S 868E 25 0220120518 95S 867E 25 0220120600 107S 864E 30 0220120606 116S 855E 30 0220120612 124S 846E 30 0220120618 132S 837E 30 0220120700 142S 830E 35 0220120706 146S 819E 35 0220120712 151S 809E 40 0220120718 155S 800E 45 0220120800 159S 793E 55 0220120800 159S 793E 55 0220120806 168S 781E 55 0220120806 168S 781E 55 0220120812 177S 775E 55 0220120812 177S 775E 55 0220120818 187S 768E 55 0220120818 187S 768E 55 0220120900 198S 765E 55 0220120900 198S 765E 55 0220120906 203S 763E 50 0220120906 203S 763E 50 0220120912 206S 762E 45 0220120918 208S 761E 40 0220121000 209S 762E 40 0220121006 213S 760E 40 0220121012 216S 759E 35 0220121018 222S 753E 35 NNNN