WTXS52 PGTW 100300 WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 201210011849 2020121000 03S THREE 006 02 150 08 SATL 060 T000 140S 1113E 035 R034 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 060 SW QD 065 NW QD T012 158S 1133E 040 R034 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD T024 181S 1161E 045 R034 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD T036 209S 1193E 040 R034 130 NE QD 040 SE QD 010 SW QD 050 NW QD T048 230S 1221E 030 AMP 036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND 048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 006 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 006 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 100000Z --- NEAR 14.0S 111.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S 111.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 15.8S 113.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 18.1S 116.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 21 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 20.9S 119.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 17 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 23.0S 122.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 100300Z POSITION NEAR 14.5S 111.8E. 10DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 523 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 092228Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC, AND EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL SPIRAL BANDS TO THE NORTH WRAPPING INTO A NICELY DEFINED LOW EMISSIVITY REGION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KTS) AND AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) OF T2.6 (37KTS). TC 03S IS TRACKING ALONG AN EXTENSION OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND THROUGH A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TC 03S IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A MINIMAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH TAU 12 WITH FAVORABLE SST OFFSET BY CONTINUED MODERATE EASTERLY VWS. BEGINNING AT TAU 12 AND THROUGH TAU 24 THE SYSTEM WILL INTERACT WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH, RESULTING IN INCREASED DIVERGENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH, WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH INCREASED SSTS (NEAR 30C) WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM JUST BEFORE LANDFALL. UPON MAKING LANDFALL, TC 03S WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 48 DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE UNDERLYING TERRAIN. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A MAXIMUM 160 NM SPREAD IN ACROSS TRACK SOLUTIONS AT TAU 48. THIS GOOD AGREEMENT IN MODEL SOLUTIONS LENDS OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED ALONG THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z, 101500Z, 102100Z AND 110300Z. FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// 0320120512 87S1058E 25 0320120518 87S1060E 25 0320120600 88S1063E 25 0320120606 90S1069E 25 0320120612 94S1074E 25 0320120618 98S1077E 25 0320120700 102S1078E 30 0320120706 106S1079E 30 0320120712 109S1079E 30 0320120718 113S1077E 30 0320120800 113S1078E 30 0320120806 112S1077E 30 0320120812 111S1081E 30 0320120818 109S1085E 45 0320120900 111S1090E 45 0320120906 116S1099E 40 0320120912 124S1106E 35 0320120918 133S1109E 35 0320121000 140S1113E 35 NNNN