WTPS51 PGTW 292100 WARNING ATCG MIL 04P SWP 191229201143 2019122918 04P SARAI 015 01 105 08 SATL 020 T000 205S 1788W 060 R050 050 NE QD 075 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 190 SE QD 165 SW QD 090 NW QD T012 207S 1775W 055 R050 010 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 170 SE QD 140 SW QD 090 NW QD T024 206S 1765W 050 R050 000 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 080 NW QD T036 201S 1753W 045 R034 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD T048 194S 1737W 040 R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 080 NW QD T072 185S 1700W 040 R034 130 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 080 NW QD T096 201S 1659W 035 R034 130 NE QD 130 SE QD 100 SW QD 120 NW QD T120 238S 1604W 030 AMP 096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER 120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 015 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 015 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 291800Z --- NEAR 20.5S 178.8W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.5S 178.8W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 20.7S 177.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 20.6S 176.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 20.1S 175.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z --- 19.4S 173.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 18.5S 170.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 20.1S 165.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 23.8S 160.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 292100Z POSITION NEAR 20.6S 178.5W. 29DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 509 NM WEST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z, 300900Z, 301500Z AND 302100Z.// 0419122306 54S1755E 15 0419122312 58S1760E 15 0419122318 63S1762E 15 0419122400 68S1764E 15 0419122406 74S1766E 20 0419122412 78S1764E 20 0419122418 81S1761E 20 0419122500 83S1757E 25 0419122506 88S1757E 25 0419122512 98S1758E 25 0419122518 110S1758E 25 0419122600 120S1758E 25 0419122606 132S1758E 35 0419122612 144S1758E 45 0419122618 157S1755E 45 0419122700 168S1754E 50 0419122700 168S1754E 50 0419122706 180S1755E 55 0419122706 180S1755E 55 0419122712 186S1760E 55 0419122712 186S1760E 55 0419122718 192S1766E 60 0419122718 192S1766E 60 0419122800 199S1772E 65 0419122800 199S1772E 65 0419122800 199S1772E 65 0419122806 202S1775E 65 0419122806 202S1775E 65 0419122806 202S1775E 65 0419122812 201S1779E 70 0419122812 201S1779E 70 0419122812 201S1779E 70 0419122818 199S1783E 70 0419122818 199S1783E 70 0419122818 199S1783E 70 0419122900 203S1791E 70 0419122900 203S1791E 70 0419122900 203S1791E 70 0419122906 205S1797E 65 0419122906 205S1797E 65 0419122906 205S1797E 65 0419122912 203S1796W 65 0419122912 203S1796W 65 0419122912 203S1796W 65 0419122918 205S1788W 60 0419122918 205S1788W 60 NNNN