WTPS51 PGTW 191500 WARNING ATCG MIL 05P SWP 201219135914 2020121912 05P YASA 029 01 165 07 SATL 040 T000 221S 1778W 050 R050 000 NE QD 080 SE QD 055 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 150 SE QD 110 SW QD 035 NW QD T012 230S 1777W 050 R034 110 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 080 NW QD T024 241S 1785W 045 R034 110 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 080 NW QD T036 252S 1793W 045 R034 110 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 080 NW QD AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 036HR EXTRATROPICAL SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNING NR 029 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNING NR 029 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 191200Z --- NEAR 22.1S 177.8W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING SUBTROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.1S 177.8W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 23.0S 177.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING SUBTROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 24.1S 178.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING SUBTROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 25.2S 179.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY SUBTROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 191500Z POSITION NEAR 22.3S 177.8W. 19DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 322 NM SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANMIATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE HIGH VWS IS BEGINNING TO TAKE ITS TOLL ON TC 05P, WITH THE PREVIOUSLY FLARING CONVECTION NOW BEING SHEARED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN EXTRAPOLATION OF A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION IN A 190912Z ASCAT-B PASS AND A WELL DEFINED LOW EMISSIVITY REGION IN A 191050Z GPM 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESIMATES OF T3.0 FROM PGTW AND KNES, IN LIGHT OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ASCAT PASS WHICH INDICATED 50-55 KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC. TC O5P IS MOVING GENERALLY SOUTHWARDS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP STR LOCATED TO THE EAST AND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS THE LEVEL OF THE STEERING FLOW BECOMES PROGRESSIVELY LOWER AFTER THE SYSTEM BECOMES DECAPITATED DUE TO THE HIGH VWS ASSOCIATED WITH A FINGER OF THE JET STREAM AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. BY TAU 36, TC 05P WILL BECOME FULLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH, AND COMPLETE TRANSITION TO A STRONG SUBTROPICAL LOW. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IS GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, HOWEVER THEY ARE NOT CAPTURING THE PREVIOUS SIX HOUR MOVEMENT TOWARDS TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. IN LIGHT OF THE RECENT MOVEMENT, THE JTWC TRACK LIES TO THE EAST OF ALL THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE AT TAU 12, THEN HUGS THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z, 200300Z, 200900Z AND 201500Z.// 0520121018 120S1683E 25 0520121100 122S1686E 25 0520121106 124S1688E 25 0520121112 125S1690E 25 0520121118 126S1699E 25 0520121200 118S1713E 25 0520121206 123S1725E 30 0520121212 134S1733E 35 0520121218 142S1737E 35 0520121300 151S1733E 40 0520121306 153S1730E 45 0520121312 155S1727E 45 0520121318 157S1723E 55 0520121318 157S1723E 55 0520121400 158S1719E 60 0520121400 158S1719E 60 0520121406 157S1718E 60 0520121406 157S1718E 60 0520121412 155S1719E 65 0520121412 155S1719E 65 0520121412 155S1719E 65 0520121418 152S1722E 85 0520121418 152S1722E 85 0520121418 152S1722E 85 0520121500 150S1725E 95 0520121500 150S1725E 95 0520121500 150S1725E 95 0520121506 149S1727E 110 0520121506 149S1727E 110 0520121506 149S1727E 110 0520121512 148S1731E 120 0520121512 148S1731E 120 0520121512 148S1731E 120 0520121518 147S1735E 135 0520121518 147S1735E 135 0520121518 147S1735E 135 0520121600 146S1741E 140 0520121600 146S1741E 140 0520121600 146S1741E 140 0520121606 150S1750E 140 0520121606 150S1750E 140 0520121606 150S1750E 140 0520121612 152S1756E 140 0520121612 152S1756E 140 0520121612 152S1756E 140 0520121618 156S1767E 135 0520121618 156S1767E 135 0520121618 156S1767E 135 0520121700 160S1777E 130 0520121700 160S1777E 130 0520121700 160S1777E 130 0520121706 165S1787E 115 0520121706 165S1787E 115 0520121706 165S1787E 115 0520121712 170S1797E 100 0520121712 170S1797E 100 0520121712 170S1797E 100 0520121718 179S1794W 85 0520121718 179S1794W 85 0520121718 179S1794W 85 0520121800 183S1789W 75 0520121800 183S1789W 75 0520121800 183S1789W 75 0520121806 190S1782W 70 0520121806 190S1782W 70 0520121806 190S1782W 70 0520121812 195S1780W 65 0520121812 195S1780W 65 0520121812 195S1780W 65 0520121818 203S1780W 55 0520121818 203S1780W 55 0520121900 209S1780W 45 0520121906 214S1780W 50 0520121912 221S1778W 50 0520121912 221S1778W 50 NNNN