WTPS51 PGTW 030300 WARNING ATCG MIL 08P SWP 190102193843 2019010300 08P PENNY 013 02 100 24 SATL 030 T000 143S 1523E 040 R034 165 NE QD 100 SE QD 125 SW QD 165 NW QD T012 152S 1551E 045 R034 170 NE QD 170 SE QD 140 SW QD 160 NW QD T024 157S 1560E 050 R050 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 160 SE QD 140 SW QD 130 NW QD T036 163S 1561E 055 R050 000 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 170 SE QD 130 SW QD 090 NW QD T048 166S 1555E 055 R050 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 160 SE QD 120 SW QD 080 NW QD T072 175S 1540E 050 R050 020 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 030 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 040 NW QD T096 183S 1513E 045 R034 030 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 100 NW QD T120 198S 1480E 040 R034 040 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 050 NW QD AMP SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY) WARNING NR 013A CORRECTED 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 030000Z --- NEAR 14.3S 152.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 22 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S 152.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 15.2S 155.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 15.7S 156.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 16.3S 156.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 16.6S 155.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 17.5S 154.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 18.3S 151.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 19.8S 148.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 030300Z POSITION NEAR 14.5S 153.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 407 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 22 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LLCC WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN AND EASTERN SEMICIRCLES. A 022307Z LOW RESOLUTION AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD AND DIFFUSE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 40 KNOTS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE, BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5, AN AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.6 (37 KNOTS) AND A SATELLITE CONSENSUS OF 52 KNOTS. A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS AT 022308Z SHOWED 40 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER, SUPPORTING THE LOWER INTENSITY ESTIMATE. TC 08P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND WILL CONTINUE TO THIS TRACK THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE STEERING PATTERN SHIFTS TO A STRENGTHENING STR TO THE SOUTH. BY TAU 48, THE STR TO THE SOUTH WILL BECOME THE DOMINATE STEERING MECHANISM AND ACCELERATE TC 08P TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 48 UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OF LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (27-29 CELSIUS) SSTS. BEYOND TAU 48 INCREASING VWS AND REDUCED OUTFLOW WILL DRIVE A WEAKENING TREND, WITH THE SYSTEM TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE QUEENSLAND COAST NEAR TAU 120 AS A WEAK TROPICAL STORM. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE SOUTHWESTWARD TURN AND TRACK SPEEDS IN THE LATER TAUS, LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z, 031500Z, 032100Z AND 040300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (MONA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW)FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. 2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED WARNING POSITION AND FORECAST.// NNNN