WTPS51 PGTW 042100 WARNING ATCG MIL 08P SWP 190104191638 2019010418 08P PENNY 020 02 360 02 SATL 060 T000 159S 1559E 045 R034 100 NE QD 145 SE QD 170 SW QD 110 NW QD T012 158S 1556E 045 R034 040 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 060 NW QD T024 160S 1550E 045 R034 020 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 040 NW QD T036 162S 1540E 050 R050 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 010 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 040 NW QD T048 164S 1529E 050 R050 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 020 NE QD 100 SE QD 110 SW QD 040 NW QD T072 166S 1508E 040 R034 020 NE QD 060 SE QD 100 SW QD 060 NW QD T096 163S 1492E 035 R034 020 NE QD 060 SE QD 100 SW QD 060 NW QD T120 156S 1470E 035 R034 040 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW QD 000 NW QD AMP SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY) WARNING NR 020 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY) WARNING NR 020 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 041800Z --- NEAR 15.9S 155.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 155.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 15.8S 155.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 16.0S 155.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 16.2S 154.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 16.4S 152.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 16.6S 150.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 16.3S 149.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 15.6S 147.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 042100Z POSITION NEAR 15.9S 155.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 584 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAKENED SYSTEM, WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST UNDER MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VWS. A 041626Z HIGH RESOLUTION AMSR2 36 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH RELATIVELY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DEEP CONVECTION, BUT A WELL DEFINED AND LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE, WITH LOW LEVEL BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE BROAD CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON THE ANIMATED 3.9 MICRON INFRARED IMAGERY, SUPPORTED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE DATA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON AN ANALYSIS OF A PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (40 KNOTS), AN AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 41 KNOTS AND A SATELLITE CONSENSUS OF 47 KNOTS, SUPPORTED BY EXTRAPOLATION OF A 10 HOUR OLD ASCAT PASS, WHICH INDICATED A BROAD REGION OF 40 KNOT WINDS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED 45 KNOT WINDBARBS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM LIES IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT, WITH HIGH (20-25 KT) NORTHEASTERLY VWS, WARM SSTS (28-29 CELSIUS) AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM HAS REMAINED QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, WHERE MODERATE LEVELS OF OHC ARE CONTRIBUTING TO THE OVERALL WEAKENING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, BUT BY TAU 24, TC 08P WILL GRADUALLY BECOME ESTABLISHED ON A WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STR TO THE SOUTHEAST. FROM TAU 72 THROUGH TAU 120, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN SLIGHT MORE NORTHWESTWARD, AS A BUILDING STR OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA BECOMES THE DOMINATE STEERING MECHANISM. HIGH VWS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 24, BUT WILL BE OFFSET BY THE HIGH SSTS, MODERATE OHC AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ALLOWING TC 08P TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 24. A SHORT PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED BETWEEN TAUS 36 AND 48, AS VWS IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND OUTFLOW BECOMES MORE DIVERGENT. HOWEVER BEYOND TAU 48, STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS DIVERGENCE ALOFT WEAKENS AND VWS AGAIN INCREASES. MODEL GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH A COUPLE OF SIGNIFICANT OUTLIERS. THE BULK OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS AGREE ON THE OVERALL TRACK, WITH GFS BEING A SOUTHWARD OUTLIER, ABOUT 60NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS BUT FOLLOWING THE SAME TRACK. THE ECMWF IS THE WESTERN OUTLIER, TAKING THE SYSTEM ON A STRAIGHT TRACK TOWARDS CAIRNS. NAVGEM IS THE EXTREME NORTH AND EAST OUTLIER, TAKING THE SYSTEM NORTH THEN NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE SOLOMONS RESULTING IN A MODEL SPREAD OF 610NM AT TAU 120. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 24 FEET. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z, 050900Z, 051500Z AND 052100Z. REFER 0818122812 115S1448E 25 0818122818 118S1448E 25 0818122900 122S1448E 25 0818122906 124S1447E 25 0818122912 126S1446E 25 0818122918 129S1443E 25 0818123000 135S1439E 25 0818123006 133S1426E 25 0818123012 132S1417E 25 0818123018 130S1407E 30 0818123100 128S1396E 35 0818123106 125S1393E 35 0818123112 125S1402E 35 0818123118 125S1407E 35 0819010100 125S1411E 40 0819010106 126S1423E 40 0819010112 128S1430E 35 0819010118 129S1436E 30 0819010200 128S1443E 35 0819010206 130S1460E 40 0819010212 132S1478E 45 0819010218 136S1502E 50 0819010300 143S1523E 40 0819010306 149S1537E 40 0819010312 153S1548E 50 0819010312 153S1548E 50 0819010318 157S1555E 55 0819010318 157S1555E 55 0819010400 160S1559E 55 0819010400 160S1559E 55 0819010406 160S1560E 50 0819010406 160S1560E 50 0819010412 161S1559E 45 0819010418 159S1559E 45 NNNN