WTPS51 PGTW 050300 WARNING ATCG MIL 08P SWP 190105011327 2019010500 08P PENNY 021 02 290 03 SATL 060 T000 158S 1556E 040 R034 100 NE QD 120 SE QD 105 SW QD 090 NW QD T012 158S 1552E 040 R034 040 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 085 NW QD T024 160S 1544E 040 R034 020 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 065 NW QD T036 163S 1535E 045 R034 010 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 030 NW QD T048 165S 1524E 040 R034 000 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW QD 030 NW QD T072 167S 1502E 035 R034 020 NE QD 050 SE QD 080 SW QD 030 NW QD T096 161S 1485E 030 T120 154S 1466E 030 AMP 096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER 120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY) WARNING NR 021 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY) WARNING NR 021 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 050000Z --- NEAR 15.8S 155.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 155.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 15.8S 155.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 16.0S 154.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 16.3S 153.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 16.5S 152.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 16.7S 150.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 16.1S 148.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 15.4S 146.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 050300Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 155.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 568 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH WEAK CONVECTION SHEARED OFF TOWARS THE SOUTHWEST UNDER MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). WHILE THE CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE IS UNIMPRESSIVE, THE LOW LEVEL STRUCUTRE REMAINS VERY ORGANIZED, WITH LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS BANDING INTO A WELL DEFINED CENTER. THE INTIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC AND ANALYSIS OF 052228Z ASCAT AMBIQUITIES WHICH LINE UP NICELY WITH THE VISIBLE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5 (35 KNOTS) TO T3.0 (45 KNOTS), AND SUPPORTED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS SHOWING TWO AREAS OF 35 TO 40 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN THE AREA OF TC 08P ARE MARGINAL, WITH MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VWS, WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) AND RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. IN FACT, A 2100Z UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF CONVERGENCE JUST UPSTREAM OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH COMBINED WITH THE VWS, ARE INHIBITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE SYSTEM HAS STARTED ITS TURN TOWARDS THE WEST OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AS IT EMERGES FROM THE WEAK STEERING PATTERN AND COMES UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. TC 08P IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THIS WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 72 BEFORE TURNING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY TAU 96 AS A STR OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA BECOMES THE DOMINATE STEERING MECHANISM. MODERATE VWS AND MARGINAL OUTFLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A MAINTENANCE OF INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 36 AS THE TWO FACTORS OFFSET ONE ANOTHER. A SHORT PERIOD OF WEAK INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST BY TAU 36 AS VWS IS FORECAST TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY BUT THEREAFTER THE SYSTEM WILL STEADILY WEAKEN AS VWS AGAIN INCREASES. TC 08P WILL WEAKEN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA BY TAU 96 AND DISSIPATE IN THE CORAL SEA BY TAU 120 UNDER THE COMBINED INFLUENCE OF LOWER SSTS, HIGH VWS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS RUN, WILL ALL MEMBERS OF THE CONSENSUS AGREEING ON THE TRACK AND SPEED THROUGH TAU 72. BEYOND TAU 72, MODELS DIVERGE SOMEWHAT, WITH GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MOVING THE SYSTEM MORE NORTHWARD, WHILE ECWMF AND ITS ENSEMBLE TAKE THE SYSTEM MORE WESTWARD TOWARDS CAIRNS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK LIES NEAR THE MULTI- MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK AND THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE. DUE TO THE INCREASING AGREEMENT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS IMPROVING, YET STILL MODERATE, CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z, 051500Z, 052100Z AND 060300Z. FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// 0818122812 115S1448E 25 0818122818 118S1448E 25 0818122900 122S1448E 25 0818122906 124S1447E 25 0818122912 126S1446E 25 0818122918 129S1443E 25 0818123000 135S1439E 25 0818123006 133S1426E 25 0818123012 132S1417E 25 0818123018 130S1407E 30 0818123100 128S1396E 35 0818123106 125S1393E 35 0818123112 125S1402E 35 0818123118 125S1407E 35 0819010100 125S1411E 40 0819010106 126S1423E 40 0819010112 128S1430E 35 0819010118 129S1436E 30 0819010200 128S1443E 35 0819010206 130S1460E 40 0819010212 132S1478E 45 0819010218 136S1502E 50 0819010300 143S1523E 40 0819010306 149S1537E 40 0819010312 153S1548E 50 0819010312 153S1548E 50 0819010318 157S1555E 55 0819010318 157S1555E 55 0819010400 160S1559E 55 0819010400 160S1559E 55 0819010406 160S1560E 50 0819010406 160S1560E 50 0819010412 161S1559E 45 0819010418 159S1559E 45 0819010500 158S1556E 40 NNNN