WTXS51 PGTW 081500 WARNING ATCG MIL 08S SIO 210108132617 2021010812 08S DANILO 019 01 240 08 SATL 060 T000 180S 0666E 030 T012 182S 0652E 030 T024 186S 0637E 035 R034 010 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD T036 193S 0616E 035 R034 040 NE QD 090 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD T048 200S 0595E 040 R034 030 NE QD 090 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD T072 219S 0567E 040 R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 080 NW QD T096 231S 0536E 035 R034 030 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD T120 244S 0511E 030 AMP 096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER 120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 019 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 019 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 081200Z --- NEAR 18.0S 66.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S 66.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 18.2S 65.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 18.6S 63.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 19.3S 61.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 20.0S 59.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 21.9S 56.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 23.1S 53.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 24.4S 51.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 081500Z POSITION NEAR 18.1S 66.2E. 08JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 542 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THAT TC 08S HAS DEGRADED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS SINCE THE LAST FORECAST, WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION BECOMING ELONGATED NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST, AND NEARLY DEVOID OF CONVECTION. AT THE 1200Z HOUR CONVECTION HAS BEGUN FLARING ONCE MORE, BUT REMAINS LIMITED IN SCOPE AND AREAL COVERAGE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE VERY BROAD NATURE OF THE CIRCULATION, BUT IS SUPPORTED GENERALLY BY A PARTIAL 081210Z GMI 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWED SHALLOW BANDING WITH MODERATE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF THE ASSESSED CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AS 30 KNOTS, SUPPORTED BY MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES BETWEEN T2.0-T2.5 (30-35 KNOTS), AND AN ADT ESTIMATE OF T2.5. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT WHILE VWS IS LOW (5-10 KTS) AND SSTS ARE WARM (27-28 DEG C), THERE IS MINIMAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, AS EVIDENCED BY ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING NO DISTINCT OUTFLOW CHANNELS. THE LACK OF OUTFLOW HAS HINDERED SUSTAINED CORE CONVECTION, AND LED TO THE RECENT WEAKENING TREND. TC 08S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, WITH 185NM SPREAD AT TAU 72 INCREASING TO 316NM AT TAU 120. HOWEVER, THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AS A WHOLE HAS SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH SLIGHTLY IN RESPONSE TO A CHANGE IN THE STORM MOTION OF THE PREVIOUS 12-HOURS. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND FAVORS THE ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS CHALLENGING BUT AVAILABLE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO STRONGER AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO. AS OUTFLOW SLOWLY IMPROVES OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS, THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 40 KNOTS BY TAU 48. THEREAFTER, INCREASING VWS AND CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A STEADY WEAKENING TREND AND DISSIPATION AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 120. THERE REMAINS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP INTO A GALE-FORCE SUBTROPICAL LOW SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR NEAR OR SLIGHTLY AFTER TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z AND 091500Z.// 0820122906 104S 705E 20 0820122912 104S 718E 20 0820122918 109S 727E 20 0820123000 114S 728E 20 0820123006 117S 727E 20 0820123012 120S 726E 20 0820123018 121S 723E 25 0820123100 123S 721E 25 0820123106 121S 724E 25 0820123112 119S 725E 25 0820123118 120S 726E 25 0821010100 122S 726E 25 0821010106 120S 722E 30 0821010112 116S 720E 35 0821010118 112S 719E 40 0821010200 109S 720E 40 0821010206 109S 722E 45 0821010212 110S 723E 45 0821010218 111S 724E 45 0821010300 113S 728E 50 0821010300 113S 728E 50 0821010306 115S 734E 55 0821010306 115S 734E 55 0821010312 120S 743E 55 0821010312 120S 743E 55 0821010318 128S 753E 55 0821010318 128S 753E 55 0821010400 138S 758E 55 0821010400 138S 758E 55 0821010406 147S 761E 50 0821010406 147S 761E 50 0821010412 154S 762E 50 0821010412 154S 762E 50 0821010418 157S 763E 50 0821010500 161S 766E 65 0821010500 161S 766E 65 0821010500 161S 766E 65 0821010506 164S 766E 65 0821010506 164S 766E 65 0821010506 164S 766E 65 0821010512 165S 766E 70 0821010512 165S 766E 70 0821010512 165S 766E 70 0821010518 166S 765E 60 0821010518 166S 765E 60 0821010600 166S 760E 45 0821010606 165S 753E 40 0821010612 164S 745E 35 0821010618 163S 736E 35 0821010700 163S 727E 35 0821010706 163S 714E 35 0821010712 164S 702E 35 0821010718 167S 690E 40 0821010800 172S 680E 40 0821010806 176S 673E 35 0821010812 180S 666E 30 NNNN