WTPS52 PGTW 042100 WARNING ATCG MIL 09P SWP 190104203347 2019010418 09P MONA 009 02 015 07 SATL 060 T000 133S 1761E 040 R034 060 NE QD 095 SE QD 080 SW QD 065 NW QD T012 132S 1768E 050 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD T024 138S 1775E 060 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 150 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD T036 152S 1781E 065 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 190 SE QD 120 SW QD 060 NW QD T048 170S 1782E 065 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 190 SE QD 140 SW QD 060 NW QD T072 196S 1763E 050 R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 170 SE QD 130 SW QD 060 NW QD T096 220S 1727E 040 R034 050 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW QD 030 NW QD T120 227S 1679E 035 R034 090 NE QD 110 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD AMP SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (MONA) WARNING NR 009 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (MONA) WARNING NR 009 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 041800Z --- NEAR 13.3S 176.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S 176.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 13.2S 176.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 13.8S 177.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 15.2S 178.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 17.0S 178.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 19.6S 176.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 22.0S 172.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 22.7S 167.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 042100Z POSITION NEAR 13.3S 176.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (MONA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 317 NM NORTH- NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT SYSTEM, WITH WEAK CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 051816Z HIGH RESOLUTION WINDSAT 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWED LOW LEVEL CONVECTIVE BANDS, PARTICULARLY ON THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM, WRAPPING INTO THE BROAD CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (35 KNOTS) IN LIGHT OF AN AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATE OF OF T3.2 (49 KNOTS) AND A SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 50 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS TC 09P LIES IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VWS (15-20 KNOTS), WARM SSTS (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 09P HAS BEEN QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE PAST 18 HOURS, MEANDERING IN A CLOCKWISE LOOP IN A WEAK STEERING PATTERN BETWEEN A NEAR EQUITORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHEAST AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST. BASED ON THE MOST RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY, IT APPEARS THAT IT HAS BEGUN TO TURN NORTHEAST, AND SHOULD TURN EAST THEN SOUTHEAST BY TAU 24 AND SOUTH BY TAU 36 AS THE NER BECOMES THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM. BY TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN ACCLERATING ONTO A SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK, PASSING OVER VITI LEVU, AS THE STR TO THE SOUTH TAKES OVER AS THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM. TC 09P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY STEADILY THROUGH TAU 36 UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OF DECREASING VWS, IMPROVING DIVERGENCE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SSTS, PEAKING AT 65 KNOTS AT TAU 36. AFTER PASSING OVER VITI LEVU, INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING SSTS WILL COMBINE TO STEADILY WEAKEN TC 09P. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN MODERATE AGREEMENT, WITH THE BULK OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS INDICATING THE TURN TO THE SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWEST TOWARDS NEW CALEDONIA, WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN ALONG TRACK SPEED AND THE TIMING OF THE TURN. THE EGRR AND GALWEM REMAIN THE FAR EASTERN OUTLIERS, TURNING THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD WELL EAST OF FIJI. DUE TO THE OVERALL HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL DATA, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. HE JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR, THOUGH SLIGHTLY FASTER BEYOND TAU 72, THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z, 050900Z, 051500Z AND 052100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY) WARNINGS 0918123000 118S1565E 15 0918123006 117S1570E 25 0918123012 115S1578E 30 0918123018 111S1589E 25 0918123100 108S1600E 25 0918123106 108S1611E 25 0918123112 105S1615E 25 0918123118 102S1618E 25 0919010100 99S1636E 25 0919010106 84S1673E 25 0919010112 76S1689E 30 0919010118 69S1708E 30 0919010200 66S1736E 30 0919010206 81S1755E 30 0919010212 93S1768E 30 0919010218 105S1776E 35 0919010300 114S1781E 35 0919010306 126S1782E 35 0919010312 136S1779E 40 0919010318 145S1774E 50 0919010400 148S1768E 50 0919010400 148S1768E 50 0919010406 143S1761E 40 0919010412 140S1759E 40 0919010418 133S1761E 40 NNNN