WTPS52 PGTW 050300 WARNING ATCG MIL 09P SWP 190105015032 2019010500 09P MONA 010 02 145 04 SATL 060 T000 136S 1763E 030 T012 138S 1770E 035 R034 080 NE QD 150 SE QD 030 SW QD 100 NW QD T024 147S 1778E 045 R034 080 NE QD 160 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD T036 160S 1784E 055 R050 010 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 190 SE QD 110 SW QD 030 NW QD T048 177S 1784E 050 R050 020 NE QD 080 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 220 SE QD 130 SW QD 040 NW QD T072 204S 1761E 040 R034 010 NE QD 170 SE QD 150 SW QD 030 NW QD T096 221S 1731E 035 R034 010 NE QD 170 SE QD 150 SW QD 030 NW QD T120 230S 1693E 030 AMP 096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 120HR EXTRATROPICAL SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (MONA) WARNING NR 010 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (MONA) WARNING NR 010 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 050000Z --- NEAR 13.6S 176.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S 176.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 13.8S 177.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 14.7S 177.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 16.0S 178.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 17.7S 178.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 20.4S 176.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 22.1S 173.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING SUBTROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 23.0S 169.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY SUBTROPICAL --- REMARKS: 050300Z POSITION NEAR 13.6S 176.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (MONA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 296 NM NORTH- NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DISORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH A BROAD, DIFFUSE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH SCATTERED FLARING CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON A PARTIALLY OBSCURED CIRCULATION CENTER VISIBLE AT TIMES IN ANIMATED IMAGERY BETWEEN FLARE UPS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. A 042151Z AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWED THE BROAD AND DIFFUSE NATURE OF THE CIRCULATION AND SUPPORTED THE PLACEMENT OF THE INITIAL POSITION, WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUD BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 30 KNOTS BASED ON A 042152Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS WHICH INDICATED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 25-30 KNOTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATE REMAINED AT T2.0 (35 KNOTS), BUT AUTOMATED ESTIMATES AND SATELLITE CONSENSUS VALUES OF 49 KNOTS AND 50 KNOTS RESPECTIVLEY WERE BASED ON THE FLARING CONVECTION AND NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF THE ACTUAL INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM. TC 09P LIES IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KNOTS) VWS, WARM SSTS (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) AND MODERATE WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 09P LOOKS TO HAVE COMPLETED ITS CLOCKWISE LOOP AND STARTED TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NEAR-EQUITORIAL RIDGE (NER) LOCATED FAR TO THE NORTHEAST. TC 09P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTH THROUGH TAU 36 ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NER. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AROUND TAU 48 ALONG THE COAST OF VITI LEVU THEN BEGIN TRACKING SOUTHWEST AS THE STEERING PATTERN SHIFTS TO A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. WHILE TC 09P HAS SO FAR FAILED TO INTENSIFY AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED, IT IS CONTINUING TO CONSOLIDATE AND IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 36 AS VWS SLACKENS SOMEWHAT, WHILE OUTFLOW IMPROVES AND THE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER WARM WATERS. AFTER PASSING OVER VITI LEVU, INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING SSTS WILL COMBINE TO STEADILY WEAKEN TC 09P. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO COOLER WATERS (24 TO 26 CELSIUS) AND MOVE UNDER A DEVELOPING UPPER-LEVEL LOW, LEADING TO SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST. SPREAD IN TEH MODEL GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED WITH THIS MOST RECENT RUN, WITH A 275 NM SPREAD BETWEEN GALWEM AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AT TAU 36. WHILE ALL MEMBERS OF THE CONSENSUS AGREE ON THE GENERAL TRACK, A ROUGHLY 300 NM SPREAD PERSISTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK LIES TO THE WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THE FORECAST AND MOST CLOSELY TO THE GFS SOLUTION. DUE TO THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND THE SPREAD IN THE MODELS THROUGH THE FORECAST, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z AND FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// 0918123000 118S1565E 15 0918123006 117S1570E 25 0918123012 115S1578E 30 0918123018 111S1589E 25 0918123100 108S1600E 25 0918123106 108S1611E 25 0918123112 105S1615E 25 0918123118 102S1618E 25 0919010100 99S1636E 25 0919010106 84S1673E 25 0919010112 76S1689E 30 0919010118 69S1708E 30 0919010200 66S1736E 30 0919010206 81S1755E 30 0919010212 93S1768E 30 0919010218 105S1776E 35 0919010300 114S1781E 35 0919010306 126S1782E 35 0919010312 136S1779E 40 0919010318 145S1774E 50 0919010400 148S1768E 50 0919010400 148S1768E 50 0919010406 143S1761E 40 0919010412 140S1759E 40 0919010418 133S1761E 40 0919010500 136S1763E 30 NNNN