WTPS51 PGTW 031500 WARNING ATCG MIL 09P SWP 210103125548 2021010312 09P IMOGEN 002 01 120 11 SATL RADR SYNP 060 T000 174S 1409E 045 R034 060 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD T012 178S 1423E 035 T024 179S 1431E 025 AMP 012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND 024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (IMOGEN) WARNING NR 002 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (IMOGEN) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 031200Z --- NEAR 17.4S 140.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.4S 140.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 17.8S 142.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 17.9S 143.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 031500Z POSITION NEAR 17.5S 141.3E. 03JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (IMOGEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 283 NM WEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS STRONG FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE ASSESSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ANIMATED RADAR DATA FROM ABOM INDICATES THAT TC 09P MADE LANDFALL NEAR KARUMBA, AUSTRALIA AT 031200Z, SUPPORTING THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KNOTS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT OF THE LACK OF ANY SUBJECTIVE OR OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OVER LAND. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY INLAND WHILE STEADILY WEAKENING AND IS EXPECTED TO FULLY DISSIPATING AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHERN CAPE YORK PENINSULA NO LATER THAN TAU 24. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 14 FEET.// 0921010112 146S1363E 20 0921010118 148S1367E 20 0921010200 150S1370E 20 0921010206 152S1373E 25 0921010212 156S1379E 25 0921010218 160S1385E 30 0921010300 163S1391E 30 0921010306 168S1399E 35 0921010312 174S1409E 45 NNNN