WTXS51 PGTW 162100 WARNING ATCG MIL 10S SIO 210116194410 2021011618 10S JOSHUA 003 01 245 07 SATL 040 T000 175S 0914E 035 R034 045 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD T012 180S 0900E 035 R034 045 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD T024 187S 0884E 040 R034 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 010 NW QD T036 191S 0867E 040 R034 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 000 NW QD T048 191S 0852E 035 R034 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 000 NW QD T072 196S 0811E 035 R034 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD T096 213S 0760E 030 T120 231S 0720E 030 AMP 096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER 120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (JOSHUA) WARNING NR 003 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (JOSHUA) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 161800Z --- NEAR 17.5S 91.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S 91.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 18.0S 90.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 18.7S 88.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 19.1S 86.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 19.1S 85.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 19.6S 81.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 13 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 21.3S 76.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 23.1S 72.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 162100Z POSITION NEAR 17.6S 91.0E. 16JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (JOSHUA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1265 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPLETE COLLAPSE OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PREVIOUS SIX TO TWELVE HOURS, WITH REMNANT FLARING, SHALLOW CONVECTION CURRENTLY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE OF THE CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON A PGTW FIX POSITION IN THE CENTER OF THE LOW-LEVEL BANDING FIELD. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KNOTS WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY FIX OF T2.5, HEDGED SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE APRF ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KTS) IN LIGHT OF THE DISTINCT LACK OF CONVECTION. TC 10S IS TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWEST ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL STR LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN CORE CONVECTION, PRIMARILY DUE TO THE LACK OF STRONG OUTFLOW CHANNEL, AS IT TRANSITS THROUGH AN OTHERWISE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (5-10 KTS) VWS AND WARM (26-27 DEG C) SSTS. TC 10S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGH TAU 24, THEN MORE WESTERLY THROUGH TAU 72 IN RESPONSE TO AN ELONGATION OF THE STR TO AN EAST-WEST ORIENTATION. AFTER TAU 96, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE POLEWARD TOWARDS A WEAKNESS THAT DEVELOPS IN THE STR IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSAGE OF A TRANSIENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS SHOULD ALLOW FOR IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW RESULTING IN A SHORT PERIOD OF WEAK INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 40 KNOTS BY TAU 24. THERAFTER, THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF INCREASING VWS, COOLING SSTS AND CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT WILL CONSPIRE TO STEADILY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM THROUGH TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH A 40NM SPREAD AT TAU 48, INCREASING TO 160NM AT TAU 120. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES JUST POLEWARD OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS , CLOSELY TRACKING THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z AND 172100Z.// 1021011212 106S1000E 20 1021011218 111S 996E 20 1021011300 114S 990E 25 1021011306 116S 984E 25 1021011312 118S 979E 30 1021011318 121S 975E 25 1021011400 128S 973E 25 1021011406 135S 969E 25 1021011412 140S 966E 30 1021011418 145S 961E 30 1021011500 149S 958E 30 1021011506 154S 953E 30 1021011512 158S 948E 30 1021011518 162S 942E 35 1021011600 165S 935E 35 1021011606 169S 928E 35 1021011612 172S 921E 40 1021011618 175S 914E 35 NNNN