WTXS51 PGTW 060300 WARNING ATCG MIL 12S SIO 190206012109 2019020600 12S FUNANI 003 02 225 04 SATL 060 T000 165S 0640E 050 R034 095 NE QD 105 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD T012 172S 0639E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 130 SE QD 080 SW QD 140 NW QD T024 180S 0647E 080 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 150 SE QD 100 SW QD 150 NW QD T036 197S 0659E 095 R064 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 160 SE QD 130 SW QD 160 NW QD T048 219S 0677E 105 R064 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 130 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 170 SE QD 130 SW QD 160 NW QD T072 275S 0721E 095 R064 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 130 NE QD 110 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 230 SE QD 120 SW QD 170 NW QD T096 350S 0747E 065 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 030 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 350 NE QD 250 SE QD 140 SW QD 240 NW QD AMP 072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 096HR EXTRATROPICAL SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 003 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 003 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 060000Z --- NEAR 16.5S 64.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S 64.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 17.2S 63.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 18.0S 64.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 19.7S 65.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 21.9S 67.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 27.5S 72.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 20 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 35.0S 74.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 350 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 060300Z POSITION NEAR 16.7S 64.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 438 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFY, WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A TIGHT CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE EVIDENT IN A 052332Z SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE AT 50 KNOTS, HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) IN LIGHT OF AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) AND A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 55 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM LIES IN AN AREA HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION, WITH LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VWS, VERY WARM SSTS (30 CELSIUS) AND STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW BEING PROVIDED BY AN UPPER LEVEL POINT SOURCE NEARBY. TC FUNANI IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST. TC FUNANI IS FORECAST TO TURN MORE SOUTHEAST AND ACCELERATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE STR BEGINS TO REORIENT IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE WEST. TC 12S IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS RADIAL OUTFLOW CONTINUES AND BECOMES ENHANCED BY A TAP INTO THE POLEWARD FLOW AHEAD OF THE DIVERGENT TROUGH, PEAKING AT 105 KNOTS AT TAU 48. BEYOND TAU 48, INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING SSTS WILL COMBINE TO PUT THE SYSTEM ON A WEAKENING TREND. BY TAU 72, TC FUNANI BEGINS TO INTERACT DIRECTLY WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES ALOFT AND BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96, AS IT GAINS COLD CORE BAROCLINIC TRAITS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH SOME MARGINAL SPREAD AFTER TAU 72, WITH NAVGEM AND ECMWF DEFINING THE WESTERN AND EASTERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE RESPECTIVELY. THE JTWC FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTIMODEL CONSENUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z, 061500Z, 062100Z AND FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// 1219020400 131S 700E 20 1219020406 134S 692E 20 1219020412 138S 680E 25 1219020418 144S 671E 30 1219020500 148S 660E 30 1219020506 151S 653E 30 1219020512 157S 646E 35 1219020518 162S 643E 45 1219020600 165S 640E 50 NNNN