WTXS52 PGTW 192100 WARNING ATCG MIL 12S SIO 210119185658 2021011918 12S ELOISE 006 01 265 09 SATL 025 T000 153S 0501E 045 R034 095 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD T012 158S 0482E 035 R034 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 000 SW QD 040 NW QD T024 167S 0460E 030 T036 177S 0440E 030 T048 186S 0422E 045 R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD T072 206S 0388E 070 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 130 NW QD T096 231S 0357E 080 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 090 NW QD T120 249S 0335E 060 R050 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 150 SE QD 160 SW QD 070 NW QD AMP SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELOISE) WARNING NR 006 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELOISE) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 191800Z --- NEAR 15.3S 50.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 50.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 15.8S 48.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 16.7S 46.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 17.7S 44.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 18.6S 42.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 20.6S 38.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 23.1S 35.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 24.9S 33.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 192100Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 49.6E. 19JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELOISE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 262 NM NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z AND 202100Z. // 1221011218 126S 826E 25 1221011300 127S 813E 20 1221011306 128S 804E 20 1221011312 131S 789E 20 1221011318 135S 777E 20 1221011400 136S 764E 25 1221011406 133S 751E 25 1221011412 122S 735E 25 1221011418 116S 723E 20 1221011500 112S 715E 20 1221011506 115S 702E 20 1221011512 118S 687E 25 1221011518 120S 676E 25 1221011600 122S 667E 30 1221011606 124S 660E 30 1221011612 125S 652E 30 1221011618 125S 644E 30 1221011700 126S 633E 30 1221011706 126S 621E 35 1221011712 130S 612E 35 1221011718 132S 596E 40 1221011800 135S 581E 45 1221011806 137S 566E 45 1221011812 139S 550E 50 1221011812 139S 550E 50 1221011818 141S 530E 50 1221011818 141S 530E 50 1221011900 143S 520E 45 1221011906 145S 517E 50 1221011906 145S 517E 50 1221011912 152S 510E 50 1221011912 152S 510E 50 1221011918 153S 501E 45 NNNN