WTXS52 PGTW 060300 WARNING ATCG MIL 13S SIO 190206021714 2019020600 13S THIRTEEN 001 02 300 08 SATL 060 T000 124S 0537E 035 R034 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD T012 120S 0533E 045 R034 080 NE QD 040 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD T024 123S 0531E 055 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 120 NW QD T036 131S 0538E 060 R050 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 130 NW QD T048 143S 0551E 070 R064 030 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 120 NW QD T072 175S 0594E 080 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD T096 212S 0659E 075 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD T120 248S 0725E 060 R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD AMP SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 001 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 001 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 060000Z --- NEAR 12.4S 53.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.4S 53.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 12.0S 53.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 12.3S 53.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 13.1S 53.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 14.3S 55.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 17.5S 59.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 18 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 21.2S 65.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 24.8S 72.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 060300Z POSITION NEAR 12.3S 53.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 495 NM NORTH OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM, WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A WELL DEFINED BUT OBSCURED LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 052202Z AMSR2 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING A VERY WELL DEFINED LLCC AND DEVELOPING MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS) BASED ON A FMEE FIX INTENSITY OF T3.0 (35 KNOTS) AND AN AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.1 (36 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 13S LIES IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH WARM SSTS (30 CELSIUS), AND MODERATE VWS (15-20 KNOTS) WHICH IS BEING OFFSET BY ROBUST EQUATORWARD AND WESTWARD OUTFLOW BEING PROVIDED BY A UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC 13S IS SLOWLY DRIFTING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED OVER MADAGASCAR. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE STR OVER MADAGASCAR WILL MOVE WESTWARD AND WEAKEN, ALLOWING FOR THE DEEP STR OVER THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN TO TAKE OVER AS THE DOMINATE STEERING MECHANISM AND PUSH TC 13S ONTO A SOUTH, THEN SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK BY TAU 36, ACCELERATING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 13S IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER MODERATELY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT BETWEEN TAUS 36 AND 48, AS THE OUTFLOW PATTERN SHIFTS TO A DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW PATTERN BY 48, WHICH WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD OF MORE RAPID INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 80 KNOTS BY TAU 72. THEREAFTER, VWS WILL STEADILY INCREASE AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, LEADING TO STEADY WEAKENING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH ALL MEMBERS OF THE CONSENSUS EXCEPT NAVGEM SUPPORTING THE TRACK NORTHWEST, THEN TURNING SOUTH WITH 24 HOURS AND ACCELERATING SOUTHEASTWARD. NAVGEM INDICATES A BROAD TURN TO THE EAST THEN ULTIMATELY SOUTHEAST BUT THIS SOLUTION IS CONSIDERED UNLIKELY AT THE CURRENT TIME. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z, 061500Z, 062100Z AND 070300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) 1319020418 121S 559E 20 1319020500 124S 557E 20 1319020506 126S 553E 25 1319020512 127S 549E 25 1319020518 128S 544E 30 1319020600 124S 537E 35 NNNN